Australia’s international education sector is being asked to do something very difficult: restore integrity and social licence while operating under tighter policy settings and a formal cap on new commencements from 2025. At the same time, student demand in key source markets has not disappeared. It is looking for alternative pathways.
You can see this tension clearly when you stand behind a stand at Brazil’s Salão do Estudante fairs. Brazil has a large, young population and a steadily growing outbound cohort – with well over 100,000 students heading overseas each year across language, VET and HE. For years, Australia has been one of the main aspirational destinations. Now, however, the questions counsellors and families bring to the booth are subtly different: “Will my course still be eligible under the cap?”, “How will work rights and post-study options change?”, “What happens if policy shifts again while I am studying? Is my student visa likely to be approved?”.
From a New Zealand vantage point “next door”, three themes stand out that may be useful for Australian institutions, policymakers and practitioners watching Latin America.
- Policy signals travel faster than policy detail Education counsellors and agents are aware of the 270,000 cap and the broader integrity push, even if they don’t follow every single ESOS amendment. What they absorb is the tone: is a country welcoming, wary, or actively trying to reduce numbers? In parallel, they see New Zealand publicly talking about international education as a NZ$4.5 billion export it wants to grow to NZ$7.2 billion by 2034 under a “Going for Growth” plan that emphasises quality and regional benefit.
From our conversations in Latin America, this contrast is not yet a “swing” away from Australia – the brand remains strong – but it is a live discussion point. Students and parents are asking which system is more predictable over the life of a degree, and counsellors are diversifying their recommendations accordingly with destinations like Ireland and Germany featuring more frequently in conversations.
- Pathways beat promises – and lived experience beats slogans In Latin America, the destinations that are cutting through are the ones that can describe whole-of-journey pathways: language or foundation, into VET or HE, into genuine employment aligned with skill needs, into a realistic permanent residence scenario. That is true whether the provider is Australian, New Zealand or Ireland.
Where we see E-E-A-T (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, and Trustworthiness) really matter is in who is telling that story. Counsellors are looking for partners who can point to specific, anonymised cases (“this is how an engineering technician moved from São Paulo to a regional construction role, here’s the timeline and visa pathway”), not just generic “work while you study” messaging. The more a provider or intermediary can show lived experience at the coalface, the more willing counsellors are to stick with them through policy volatility.
Australia still has significant advantages here: scale, diversity of programmes, and employers who understand the value of international graduates. But the narrative is increasingly being judged on whether institutions and their partners can back their promises with data and real trajectories, particularly in markets where English is not universal and the financial stakes for families are high.
- Latin America is part of the solution, not a side project Australia’s current debate often (understandably) centres on housing pressures in a handful of inner-city postcodes and integrity issues in some segments of the VET and PTE market. Latin America, and Brazil in particular, tends to feature as a diversification footnote. Yet from a fair floor perspective, this region is a strategically important hedge: younger demographics, a growing middle class, and strong interest in disciplines linked to Australia’s and New Zealand’s skill gaps, from health to engineering and agri-tech.
New Zealand has been explicit that diversification – including Latin America – is part of its long-term risk management strategy for international education. For Australian providers navigating caps, a one size fits all visa fee and internal rebalancing, the question may not be “Australia or New Zealand?” so much as “How do we collectively engage Latin America in a way that reinforces integrity, spreads benefit, and rebuilds public confidence across the Tasman?”
From where I sit, working with employers and institutions across both countries, three practical implications follow for readers of The Koala News:
- Treat fairs like Salão do Estudante as listening posts, not just recruitment drives. What Brazilian students and counsellors are anxious about in 2026 is a leading indicator of how your policy shifts are landing offshore.
- Invest in partners who can demonstrate E-E-A-T in your key markets. That means documented student journeys, on-the-ground experience, and transparent, ethical recruitment practices – not just volume.
- Look at New Zealand as a laboratory, not a rival. A smaller system experimenting with “growth with guardrails” creates evidence and case studies.
International education in this region has always been an ecosystem play. Caps, integrity measures and political scrutiny are reshaping that ecosystem, but they have not removed underlying demand in places like Brazil. The challenge – and opportunity – for Australia and New Zealand alike is to show, through our policies and our partnerships, that we can turn that demand into pathways that are clear, ethical and genuinely nation-building on both sides of the Pacific.
Tom Keenan is the Head of Education Partnerships, Working In (New Zealand–based, working across ANZ)