A US demand for a 20 year suspension clashed with Iran’s five year offer, leaving negotiators divided and a fresh diplomatic round imminent.
Following American-Pakistani talks in Islamabad on April 10-11, President of the United States Donald Trump said that the main reason for the failure was Iran’s refusal to dismantle its nuclear program. The chief American negotiator, Vice President J. D. Vance, described the parties’ positions as completely opposite on the issue of guarantees that Iran will never be able to develop nuclear weapons – “not only now, not only in two years, but also in the long term.” It turned out that the White House envisions this long-term horizon at 20 years.
According to sources, the US position does not involve a permanent ban on Iran enriching uranium. Instead, the United States proposed to suspend all nuclear activity for 20 years. This would allow the Iranians to claim that they had not permanently renounced their right to produce nuclear fuel, which is guaranteed by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
According to two Iranian and one American official, in response Iran proposed suspending nuclear activity for a period of up to five years. The Iranians made a very similar proposal in February during unsuccessful talks in Geneva, after which Trump concluded that the time had come to start a war.
For Trump there is also a risk that any deal with Iran could resemble the 2015 nuclear deal that was negotiated by President Barack Obama. Trump withdrew from it in 2018, calling it “horrible, one-sided agreement that should never, ever have been concluded.”
Trump complained that the deal had a deadline: it allowed Iran to gradually expand uranium enrichment activities to 2030, and then all restrictions would disappear (except for the obligation not to develop a nuclear weapon, which is prohibited by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty).
Another stumbling block is the US demand that Iran remove from the country 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium to guarantee that it could never be redirected to a weapons program. Trump considered the possibility of sending ground troops to Isfahan to take out most of this uranium, which is stored deep underground. The Iranians insisted that the fuel must remain inside Iran. But, as in Geneva, they proposed significantly diluting it so that it could not be used for a nuclear weapon.
Reuters, citing five sources, reports that a new round of talks between the United States and Iran could take place as early as this week.
not only now, not only in two years, but also in the long term
– J. D. Vance
Conditions and Prospects for Further Negotiations
Analysts note that both sides remain on positions that differ substantially on guarantees regarding Iran’s nuclear program. In this context, the upcoming talks could be decisive for whether it is possible to halt the escalation and find a compromise that satisfies the security interests of the United States and Iran’s international obligations.
Negotiators say that a new round could take place in the coming days, but specific dates remain the subject of talks. At the same time, representatives of both sides emphasize that any decision will require clear guarantees and a realistic approach to future enrichment and monitoring.