Alarming news about mobilization and movement of equipment once again forces Ukraine to look closely into the Polesian forests. However, behind the rattling of weapons lies not so much a real threat, but a cunning geopolitical game for survival. The true motives of this militaristic theater lie in a completely different plane.
Павялічыць
Lukashenka at the training ground. Photo: official website of Lukashenka
As former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba notes in his analytical video, since the beginning of 2026, there has been a systematic military escalation in Belarus. It is not chaotic and consists of five specific elements. This includes continuous training of troops under the supervision of Russian instructors, as well as a public call for reserve officers, demonstrating mobilization readiness.
Added to this are the March command-staff maneuvers, where Aliaksandr Lukashenka, in the role of a stern commander-in-chief, promised to “flay three skins” from generals and demanded physical fitness from them.
The latest touches are the strengthening of Belarusian air defense with Russian systems and close coordination at the headquarters level of the two countries. Merging together, these factors demonstrate a qualitatively new level of army preparation.
Fear of losing “preserved USSR”
The culmination was a meeting where the Belarusian leader, sitting in a tunic with epaulets, grandiosely declared: “The era of peace for Belarus is over… We are preparing for war.”
But, according to Kuleba, behind these words stands not his own desire to launch an offensive, but solely the pressure from Vladimir Putin. Russia desperately needs a second front to stretch Ukrainian forces and force Kyiv to capitulate.
However, the Belarusian leader himself is deathly afraid of direct participation in hostilities. He perfectly understands that Ukraine will respond with massive strikes, “many drones and missiles” will appear in the sky, and infrastructure will begin to turn into ashes.
For a person whose main dream is to preserve the country as a “preserved Soviet Union,” such a scenario of the death of inexperienced soldiers and the destruction of cities is absolutely unacceptable.
Geopolitical blackmail and Plan B
To counter this Moscow pressure, Ukraine needs to engage global diplomatic levers. Kuleba mentions the factor of China and the USA not by chance.
The American administration of Donald Trump, which previously showed certain conciliatory gestures towards Minsk, absolutely does not need the opening of a new front. This would fall on Washington’s shoulders and look like a failure of their peace policy.
At the same time, all this militaristic activity may have another, parallel goal. By frightening Ukrainians, Russia simultaneously tries to pressure Poland and the Baltic countries, creating the illusion of an inevitable major war in the region.
Preparation for escalation on Belarusian territory is indeed underway, but this by no means implies an immediate crossing of the border. The entire situation is a complex psychological game and a test of nerves, where the main defense for Minsk so far remains its own fear of losing the created authoritarian mirage.