A senior Belarusian opposition leader described sweeping mobilization and ideological campaigns that prepare society for a possible conflict. He highlighted expanded reserves and digital SMS mobilization while arguing Minsk is unlikely to launch an independent invasion.
Belarus is actively militarizing, revising mobilization mechanisms, and psychologically preparing the population for a possible armed conflict, but the prospect of a unilateral attack by its army on Ukraine remains unlikely at present.
Such a position was stated by Pavlo Latushko, deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, during the session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe in Strasbourg.
«First of all, the system for making such a decision has changed. From now on, the decision to send Belarus’s armed forces to war is made by the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly. This is 1,200 so-called delegates appointed by Lukashenko. The mobilization system has been changed. A digital mobilization via SMS notification has been introduced. The mobilization threshold has been lowered – in other words, it is now possible to conscript much wider categories of the population. Therefore the mobilization reserve of Belarus currently numbers 289 thousand people. By comparison, the regular army numbers 65 thousand»
– Pavlo Latushko
According to him, in the near future they plan to increase the regular forces to about 85 thousand, and together with 150 thousand in territorial defense, the total could exceed half a million combat units.
“Training in Belarus does not stop. When one ends, new ones begin. They train everyone, including divers. Recently there was a check of the armed forces’ combat readiness. In 2024, about 4,600 units of weapons were delivered and the Southern Operational Command was established. All of this is clear evidence of preparation for war.”
In addition, Latushko emphasized a rise in defense spending – over 32% in the previous year, as well as active ideological conditioning of society.
«Lukashenko constantly uses the word “war”. We are preparing for war. War is unavoidable. And Lukashenko, in my view, very often uses this word to psychologically prepare Belarusian society for the fact that if it happens, it will not be such a shock. However, in reality the Belarusian army is not capable of carrying out an attack. And not because Lukashenko loves Ukraine or Ukrainians. We know his attitude toward Ukraine, and toward Lithuanians, and toward Poles. And because he fears losing his position. To perform the role of Putin’s helper – yes, Lukashenko will do this always. Just as it happened in 2022, but starting aggression on his own is unrealistic»
– Belarusian opposition figure
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, noted that Russia may consider various scenarios, including those related to Belarusian territory, but hopes Minsk will not fall into such plans.
In conclusion, despite active militarization, official statements by the opposition and experts indicate that a unilateral Belarusian attack on Ukraine under current circumstances is unlikely.