Ukraine Drone Industry: How It Broke America’s Hold on Europe

drones used for trench warfare don’t break anything. europe still going to buy american planes, american patriots (or israeli david sling, as some countries do), because high tech weapons for defense against advanced threats can’t be replaced by drones

Some of these articles are so full of misinformation it is no wonder people are ignorant about things. First and foremost, the U.S. was responsible for getting Ukraine’s whole drone program set up and providing assistance along the way. Europe may have been helping too but the U.S. was the driver. You can go back to speeches Biden gave on Ukraine aide you will notice after the initial flood of expensive high tech weapons very early on you would have heard more talk about making Ukraine self sufficient in making its own weapons and this became an increasing focus. The west decided Ukraine making the weapons is more desirable than the U.S. or Europe sending them, if possible.

Why was this? One reason is you can spend $10 billion on weapons made in the U.S., say it is, I don’t know, 1000 small drones. But labor costs in Ukraine are some of the lowest in Europe. And Ukraine is not ignorant as far as making weapons are concerned and has some experience. So it was recognized that giving $10 billion in American weapons does not get you nearly as much bang for your buck if you can get a factory set up in Ukraine to make them. The cost difference is just plain ridiculous and that $10 billion will get a LOT more small drones that way, maybe by a factor of 100X. The money simply goes farther. It is also quite likely Ukraine had assistance with their missile programs and other things they have set up. But as I said Ukraine was a weapon maker before so they can also innovate themselves as things go, make things cheaper, make changes as conditions require as well. Which is also helpful in improving quality. But have no doubt the west’s hands are all over the Ukrainian defense production. This was set out as a goal quite early on and stated directly as a goal and appears have yielded excellent fruit so to speak. And with Ukraine’s own additional ingenuity that has helped improve weapons beyond just making them. And they have to deal with real time battle field conditions as they change thus have incentive to move fast with improvements. The west still helps with tech and probably software and even AI. But due to the reasons mentioned next, the west prefers to keep its help be it components, software, or AI quiet.

The other reason the west wanted this was they were restricting the use of western weapons fired into Russia. The west was concerned about escalation with Russia. If it is Ukrainian made the west can shrug and say “it is a Ukrainian weapon they made, we have no control over that”. This was part of the reason for helping Ukraine set up drones, and later what were essentially simple cruise missiles (technically drones but the distinction is blurred). It was only later the west eased restrictions on strikes in Russia with western weapons. A weapon made by Ukraine though is one they can use on any target, well just about any target, they do rely on western funds and components so are restricted for lobbing missiles at Putin himself. But the goal here was to give Ukraine more freedom in targeting without risk to the west. And as mentioned, if you can make simple cruise missiles in Ukraine, it is better to just pay the Ukrainians to make it as they will get a lot more weapons for the same amount of dollars, and can build an industry to keep making weapons.

There has been a quiet heavy hand of the west getting Ukraine set up to do this with lots of help. Then Ukraine’s ability to innovate due to changing conditions improved things further and there is highly likely still a lot of working together, quietly, with the west. AI might come fro the west, some other improvement comes from Ukraine. This “Ukraine is the most incredible drone/arms maker gets a bit absurd after a while.

And there is nothing wrong with buying or making weapons Ukraine is using based on the most recent real life battlefield lessons. In fact, Europe is very fortunate Ukraine is making weapons now that can be used by Europe because France, for example, also has high labor costs, and for the same amount of money can make more weapons if made in Ukraine given how cheap labor is. When this war is over Europe will be very fortunate to be able to build at least some of the weapons they need given how little Europe has spent on defense. This will stretch the Euro to go farther. And if the U.S. buying anything from Ukraine, even just having an American designed weapon manufactured there is very desirable due to the cost differential.

The U.S. has had a very strong tradition that we need to be the ones making the weapons as in a war supplies from elsewhere can get cut off. Doesn’t mean we don’t buy any weapons elsewhere but have will need to have the ability to make it here too for strategic reasons. This is actually starting to change just a little bit. There is some very quite talk about having parts of some U.S. warships being made in S. Korea or Japan who can do it cheaper and faster given the U.S. limitation of its own ship yards. This would be unthinkable before. But the Navy needs certain ships fast and can’t make them fast enough so it is being considered (or may even be quietly done). Same with Ukraine, as long as the U.S. maintains its own ability to make various drones, there is nothing wrong with getting at least some weapons from Ukraine, or use designs from Ukraine should they have innovated it themselves. This just stretches the defense budget so much further and you get so much more for dollar spent. Of course the U.S. nor Europe would allow themselves to become totally reliant on Ukraine, but there is nothing at all wrong with buying a bunch of much lower priced quality weapons made in Ukraine. I fully expect Ukraine to be a big weapons maker for Europe after the war and likely will move up the value chain in types of weapons when the risk of factories being destroyed is no more.

This is very much like how people started making manufactured goods in China except in this case it is weapons. China had low labor costs so factories were moved there to make cheaper products. In a way Ukraine is the “China” of low cost weapon manufacturing. They have enough expertise to make them and even innovate, their costs are insanely low compared to the U.S. and Europe. As a result I fully expect Ukraine to be a big weapons manufacturer after the war, be it western companies setting up factories there, or with Ukraine making its own drone designs and with time Ukraine will fully design new weapons that may be completive with some lower tech European or U.S. weapons. But as I said, Europe is likely to simply move the high tech weapons manufacturing facilities into Ukraine and that is how they will gain experience making the most high tech weapons. And all of that is a good thing. Cheaper weapons for the west, an industry for Ukraine’s economy to grow, help Ukraine prosper, Ukraine can also arm itself if anything like this happens again, it is all win win win. Ukraine is a high skill, very low cost labor market, and has experience in weapon making in general. And now firmly allied with the west, this is a perfect set up for Ukraine to be a major weapons manufacturer for Europe, and even some weapons for the U.S. and that is a positive for everyone involved.