With first rehearsals for Semi-Final One complete and the images now released, we are taking a look at how the betting markets have reacted to the first look at the performances.
Semi-Final One
Estonia has climbed into a qualification spot, as a tight battle remains between Estonia, Portugal and Georgia for the final qualification spot. Vanilla Ninja are currently at their highest position in the betting odds this season, while Georgia has slipped to its lowest to date.
Further up the top ten there have been minor movements, with Croatia climbing to its highest qualification percentage to date, while Serbia has slightly fallen back. From eighth position up, the betting markets seem fairly stable regarding who they believe will secure a place in the final on May 16.
The latest odds according to Eurovision World are (change since May 1):
- Finland – Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen – “Liekinheitin” – 96% (+1%)
- Greece – Akylas – “Ferto” – 95% (no change
- Sweden – Felicia – “My System” – 95% (+1%)
- Israel – Noam Bettan – “Michelle” – 95% (+1%)
- Moldova – Satoshi – “Viva Moldova!” – 88% (+2%)
- Croatia – Lelek – “Andromeda” – 83% (+1 place, +1%)
- Serbia – Lavina – “Kraj mene” – 81% (-1 place, -1%)
- Lithuania – Lion Ceecah – “Sólo quiero más” – 71% (no change)
- Montenegro – Tamara Živković – “Noza Zora” – 60% (-1%)
- Estonia – Vanilla Ninja – “Too Epic to Be True” – 47% (+2 places, +1%)
- Georgia – Bzikebi – “On Replay” – 47% (-1 place, -2%)
- Portugal – Bandidos do Cante – “Rosa” – 46% (-1 place, -1%)
- Poland – Alicja – “Prayer” – 43% (no change)
- Belgium – Essyla – “Dancing on the Ice” – 37% (+1%)
- San Marino – Senhit feat. Boy George – “Superstar” – 18% (-1%)
Odds of Victory
Image source: Eurovision.tv
Image source: Corinne Cumming / EBU
Greece and Australia are the biggest climbers since we last looked at the odds for victory on May 1. Greece has gained a further 1.3 percentage points, putting it now 6 percentage points ahead of Denmark as the second favourite to win. Australia has also now passed France to become the fourth favourite to take victory, as France continues to slowly fall back down the odds.
The latest odds according to Eurovision World are (change since May 1):
- Finland – Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen – “Liekinheitin” – 29.3% (+0.3%)
- Greece – Akylas – “Ferto” – 16.3 % (+1.3%)
- Denmark – Søren Torpegaard Lund – “Før vi går hjem” – 10.3% (-0.1%)
- Australia – Delta Goodrem – “Eclipse” – 8.6% (+1 place, +0.6%)
- France – Monroe – “Regarde !” – 7.8% (-1 place, -0.8%)
- Israel – Noam Bettan – “Michelle” – 4.7% (-0.4%)
- Sweden – Felicia – “My System” – 2.7% (-0.3%)
- Romania – Alexandra Căpitănescu – “Choke Me” – 2.6% (-0.1%)
- Italy – Sal Da Vinci – “Per sempre si” – 2.5% (no change)
- Ukraine – Leléka – “Ridnym” – 1.9% (-0.1%)
- Malta – Aidan – “Bella” – 1.7% (no change)
- Cyprus – Antigoni – “Jalla” – 1.4% (no change)
- Czechia – Daniel Zizika – “Crossroads” – 1.2% (-0.1%)
- Bulgaria – DARA – “Bangaranga” – 1.1% (-0.1%)
- Moldova – Satoshi – “Viva Moldova!” – 1.0% (no change)
- Croatia – Lelek – “Andromeda” – 0.8% (no change)
- Luxembourg – Eva Marija – “Mother Nature” – 0.6% (-0.1%)
- Norway – Jonas Lovv – “Ya Ya Ya” – 0.6% (no change)
- United Kingdom – Look Mum No Computer – “Eins, zwei, drei” – 0.6% (+1 place)
- Lithuania – Lion Ceecah – “Sólo quiero más” – 0.5% (-1 place, -0.1%)
- Germany – Sarah Engels – “Fire” – 0.4% (no change)
- Albania – Alis – “Nân” – 0.4% (+2 places, +0.1%)
- Latvia – Atvara – “Ēnā” – 0.4% (-1 place)
- Serbia – Lavina – “Kraj mene” – 0.3% (-1 place)
- Armenia – Simón – “Paloma rumba” – 0.3% (no change)
- Switzerland – Veronica Fusaro – “Alice” – 0.3% (no change)
- Poland – Alicja – “Prayer” – 0.2% (no change)
- Belgium – Essyla – “Dancing on the Ice” – 0.2% (no change)
- Georgia – Bzikebi – “On Replay” – 0.2% (no change)
- Austria – Cosmó – “Tanzschien” – 0.2% (+1 place)
- Portugal – Bandidos do Cante – “Rosa” – 0.2% (-1 place)
- Estonia – Vanilla Ninja – “Too Epic to Be True” – 0.2% (no change)
- San Marino – Senhit feat. Boy George – “Superstar” – 0.2% (no change)
- Montenegro – Tamara Živković – “Noza Zora” – 0.2% (no change)
- Azerbaijan – Jiva – “Just Go” – 0.2% (no change)
Source: Eurovision World