We know that the planet is warming at an alarming pace, which is causing a number of impacts, affecting billions around the world. But climate change is not just bringing floods, wildfires, droughts, or any other extreme weather event.
It might also be behind a rising risk of armed conflict and wars.
Researchers at Rice University in Texas, U.S., have found that large-scale climate patterns, particularly El Nino and a lesser-known weather system called the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), can meaningfully increase the risk of civil conflict and war in certain parts of the world.
City view of Gaza under dark clouds with rain on the horizon illustarting weather and war. (Photo: Pexels)
The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is one of the most detailed of its kind, tracking over 500 conflict events between 1950 and 2023.
“We wanted to understand whether armed conflict risk is linked to these climate patterns, and whether local conflict risk scales with how strongly the patterns influence local weather,” said Tyler Bagwell, the doctoral student who led the study. “This would allow us to identify regions particularly susceptible to climate-driven political or social instability.”
THE MANY FACES OF EL NINO
Previous research had loosely connected El Nino to a rise in global conflicts, but the team behind the new study dug deeper.
They found that the high risk of conflicts breaking out isn’t spread evenly. Instead, it clusters specifically in regions where El Nino brings drier conditions, suggesting that drought, crop failure, and water stress are the real pressure points.
A close-up of a dried, cracked land depicting drought. (Photo: Pexels)
“Increased conflict risk during El Nino is primarily linked to regions that experience drier conditions,” Bagwell noted. “In areas where El Nino is associated with wetter conditions, we do not find a credible relationship.”
The team also uncovered a fresh finding about the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
The IOD is a climate pattern caused by shifts in sea surface temperatures across the Indian Ocean, when one side warms, the other cools, affecting the rainfall and weather across nearby continents.
A damaged tent shelter in a flooded area of a Gaza refugee camp. (Photo: Pexels)
While El Nino originates in the Pacific and drives global weather disruptions, the IOD operates more regionally but can intensify or weaken El Nino’s effects, sometimes making droughts or floods in vulnerable areas significantly worse.
Researchers found that both phases of the IOD, whether wet or dry, appear to raise conflict risk in places like the Horn of Africa and parts of Southeast Asia.
“The Indian Ocean Dipole operates on shorter timescales and can shift rapidly, creating climate ‘whiplash’ that may disrupt already vulnerable regions,” said Sylvia Dee, climate scientist and study co-author.
A lightning strike over Chernihiv, Ukraine’s skyline. (Photo: Pexels)
WEATHER FORECAST AND A WARNING
Because both El Nino and the IOD can be predicted months ahead, researchers believe this knowledge could power early-warning systems for humanitarian and peacekeeping agencies.
“We can’t say definitively that climate causes conflict,” said statistics professor Frederi Viens. “But we can say that some climate patterns change the probability of conflict. And understanding those shifts in risk is valuable for planning and mitigation.”
Old stone damaged house in Sudan. (Photo: Pexels)
With meteorological agencies already forecasting the return of El Nino by year’s end, and some even predicting a super El Nino expected to hit in a month or so, the team says their findings couldn’t be more timely.
“These results shed light on important connections between climate and conflict,” Bagwell added. “With both American and European meteorological agencies predicting the emergence of El Nino by the end of this year, and even some forecasts anticipating a super El Nino, our findings are especially timely.”
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