In the first quarter of 2026, Bosnia and Herzegovina recorded a total trade volume of almost 12 billion BAM, an increase of 1.5 percent, or 180 million BAM, compared to the same period last year. Imports rose by 1 percent, while exports increased by 2.5 percent. This growth, despite ongoing domestic and global challenges, offers hope that the negative export trends at the beginning of the year will be mitigated and will positively impact the level of economic activity in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
After very poor indicators in the first two months of this year, there was a consolidation of the domestic economy and an increase in exports in March. As a result, the foreign trade deficit in the first quarter of this year was 30 million BAM lower than in the previous year.
During the first quarter of this year, imports amounted to 7.6 billion BAM, an increase of 1 percent, or 74 million BAM. Exports totaled 4.26 billion BAM, an increase of 2.5 percent, or 103 million BAM. The export coverage of imports stood at 56 percent.
The European Union remains Bosnia and Herzegovina’s most significant foreign trade partner.
The largest trade volume was recorded with Croatia, while Serbia stands out among the on-EU countries. Among the countries from which we import the most and to which we export the most, we achieve a surplus – albeit a modest one – only with Germany and Austria.
Despite the complex geopolitical situation in the world, conflicts that have disrupted global supply chains, and the enormous increase in energy prices, positive data on imports and exports show, economists believe, that companies are flexible and operate successfully, achieving good results under almost impossible conditions. Unfortunately, this is thanks to their ownresourcefulness and enthusiasm, not to the support of the country.
“We are a resilient nation. We survive in impossible conditions – political, social, and economic. But we never surrender, and this is the greatest strength of the people in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is only sad to see that we lack authorities in the entities, and at the level of the Council of Ministers that will help and support new manufacturing projects and job creation,” said Zoran Pavlović, the economic analyst.
“To give a boost to the most significant pillars of the country – companies – issues at the state level need to be resolved, and there are so many unfinished ones. For example, it is necessary to adopt all directives regarding standardization and product quality. These are EU directives that have been on hold for years. The last one was adopted ten years ago, and nothing has changes since. We need to resolve the issue so that companies are not subject to CBAM, but instead fall under the ETS system. These are some of the expectations at the state level,” said Mirsad Jašarspahić, President of the Chamber of Economy of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
It is important to do everything possible to maintain positive trends in foreign trade.
“It would be beneficial to continue the trend of stabilizing foreign trade in the remaining quarters of this year. The last thing our economy needs right now is unpredictability or problems with foreign trade, such as short-term shortages or significant price increases,” said Admir Čavalić, economic analyst.
Although it is still too early to predict what will happen by the end of the year, it is clear that, despite growth, the foreign trade deficit will continue to increase, mainly due to rising prices of crude oil and oil derivatives. This is beyond our control, but there are other factors we can influence.
“The steel industry will hardly recover without implementing protective measures. For this reason, there will also be a further drop in exports and a rise in imports. Regarding the production of electricity, I still do not see anyone solving the issues of the electric power industry, so we can expect lower exports and increased imports in that sector as well,” said Igor Gavran, an economic analyst.
Last year ended with a deficit of 14 billion BAM. That record will probably be broken this year, and a new record will be set for the negative balance in the exchange of goods with foreign countries.