The US has apparently informally floated a candidate, Antonio Zanadi Landi, of the Sovereign Order of Malta, currently the Order’s Ambassador to the Holy See. He previously served as Italy’s Ambassador to Serbia and Montenegro, as well as to Russia. Informally, many European diplomats have voiced concern. The US seal of approval, with Trump at the helm and a now avowedly accommodationist and mercantilist policy being pursued in Bosnia and the region, represents the Mark of Cain to many Europeans.
But if Europe+ intends to defend the OHR and the High Representative’s powerful role, it must defend its own interests and push for a Bosnia that advances toward genuine, popularly accountable democratic governance.
Only in this fashion is Bosnia’s candidacy for EU membership ever likely to bear fruit. In addition, only with a reinvigorated OHR and EUFOR can the designs of Serbia and Croatia in Bosnia be resisted – so finally restabilizing the region after 20 years of regression that began with the EU’s “ownership” and technocratic, enlargement-centric posture.
Schmidt’s impending departure, apparently the result of strong US pressure that could be read as cynically opportunistic, if properly approached, has the potential to catalyse a change that ought to have come long ago. The policy shift already evident toward recognising the need to keep an enforcement tool effectively constitutes an admission of failure on the part of the EU. But it is far from clear that the political will to take the necessary steps to ensure that Europe+ selects and maintains an empowered High Representative has the breadth to carry the day.
It has been some time since the EU hubristically declared that it was “the only game in town” for Bosnia and other Western Balkan countries – primarily, their political classes. Even before the US’s turn, competition from “malign foreign influence” had generated reams of research and programmes. It is also clear that numerous figures – including former High Representatives – have a different sort of change in mind, embracing a “Dayton 2” renegotiation among the elites and closure of the OHR.
Logically, so long as the Dayton Peace Agreement remains valid, Bosnia needs a potent OHR and EUFOR. It only makes sense as a package deal. The goal should be a democratic and popularly accountable sovereign, integral state in which a sweeping majority of its citizens are invested. I sketched out one way to get there in detail six months ago. There are other potential configurations. But to maintain hope in these, the US challenge needs to be seen off by a resolute Europe+.
The US policy shift, followed by aggressive efforts to entrench American business interests through tactically crafted laws and transactional political deals, represents a direct challenge to the EU and Europe+ in its own backyard.
Given the Trump administration’s antipathy toward the EU (the US no longer advocates a Bosnian path toward membership, hitherto a staple), the American moves likely are intended to actually prevent EU membership from happening.
Even before the return of Trump, the country and wider region were advancing towards being hollowed-out spaces, with people emigrating to live and work elsewhere after years of disgust at the malgovernance and corruption they saw everywhere.
The region seemed groomed to become a “Balkan Transnistria” of refugee camps, toxic waste dumps and mining sites consigned to the periphery of the EU – with a population of mostly pensioners, stubborn idealists and imported menial labour from further east, ruled by authoritarians or oligarchs. It would also be a destination for illicit activities impossible in the EU, on its very doorstep.
This glidepath would suit Trump world fine, so long as it got a big piece of the action. And in the bizarre bazaar of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s for-profit politics, there is always a willing seller, if the price is right. A Bosnia under Dayton, but without enforcement tools, would be Bosnia’s peace cartel’s dreamscape – and a nightmare for actual Bosnians and Herzegovinians. Such an American Transnistria would also pose a direct threat to Europe+, drawing people who seek a window seat on the EU without any effective rules.
Europe needs to get out of its comfort zone