The second May bank holiday weekend is imminent, and the weather will be very different compared to the first.
A spell of exceptional heat is on the way for many, with temperature records likely to be broken. This is in stark contrast to recent weeks, which have been colder than average with night frosts and snow across parts of Scotland.
A few factors have come together to create the perfect situation for soaring temperatures.
In the past 24 hours, a southerly wind has been feeding in very warm air from the nearby continent across England and Wales, which will linger into the early part of next week.
As well as the very warm air, high pressure is going to build. This will not only bring day after day of sunshine, but also cause air in the atmosphere to sink and get even warmer as it does so – something called adiabatic compression.
It’s worth noting that the focus of the heat will be across England and Wales, where temperatures will widely reach the high 20s and low 30s Celsius through the bank holiday weekend.
· Saturday: 30C
· Sunday: 32C
· Monday: 33C, with a 30% chance of 34C
· Tuesday: 32C
However, some coastal areas will be up to 5-10C cooler than just a few miles inland, because of cloudier skies or a sea breeze developing.
Whilst temperatures for most of Scotland and Northern Ireland will be above average, at times it will be cloudier, with highs of 15-22C more typical instead.
The UK maximum temperature record for May is currently 32.8C, which was set at several locations in southeast England back in 1944.
With temperatures expected to reach 33C on Monday, there is a pretty good chance that this record will be broken.
There’s also a chance that Wales could break its May maximum temperature record of 30.6C, also set in 1944.
Overnight temperatures will be significantly above average as well, with a possibility of the warmest May night record of 18.9C being surpassed.
As the impacts of climate change continue, due to the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, higher temperatures are more likely earlier in the year.
The UK’s average May temperature is around 2 degrees warmer than it was in 1890, according to the Met Office – consistent with the UK’s warming climate.
The forthcoming heat and sunshine mean that UV and pollen levels are set to be high for many areas, and there could be health impacts for vulnerable people.
Whilst some will enjoy the hot weather, others will struggle to cope, and yellow and amber heat health alerts have been issued across England.
Given that weather patterns tend to change more slowly at this time of year, the hot weather could last into the middle of next week across southern parts of England and Wales.
However, there is still some uncertainty about this, with different weather models showing different timings on when things cool down.
If you’re heading to Europe this weekend, the heat will be even more intense across a large swathe of Spain, Portugal, France and Italy. Temperatures here will widely reach the low to mid 30s, with some places close to 40C.