For nearly two decades, North Macedonia has pursued membership in the European Union, navigating a path marked less by technical shortcomings than by shifting political barriers.
Today, despite incremental reform progress, the country remains effectively stuck in the enlargement queue, with little indication that a breakthrough is imminent.
Montenegro, which declared independence from the former Yugoslavia in 2006, has moved ahead as the most advanced candidate, aiming to join the EU by 2028. Albania, initially tied to North Macedonia in the accession process, has also pulled ahead after launching its own negotiations in 2022.
North Macedonia formally launched EU accession talks the same year with the first Intergovernmental Conference, but progress towards the second conference remains conditional on adopting constitutional amendments to include Bulgarians as a recognised minority.
Bilateral disputes continue to overshadow reform progress
Granted candidate status in 2005, North Macedonia was once considered a frontrunner among Western Balkan aspirants. However, a series of bilateral disputes has repeatedly derailed its progress. The most dramatic step came in 2018, when Skopje signed the Prespa Agreement with Greece, changing its constitutional name to resolve a decades-long dispute. The move paved the way for Nato membership but failed to unlock EU accession talks as many had hoped.
Instead, a new obstacle emerged from the east. Bulgaria vetoed the start of negotiations in 2020, citing disagreements over history, language and identity. The blockade surprised many in Skopje and exposed the vulnerability of the enlargement process to bilateral issues. While the impasse was partially lifted in 2022 under a French-brokered compromise, the conditions attached proved politically contentious in Skopje.
At the heart of the dispute lies a requirement for constitutional amendments to recognise Bulgarians as a constituent minority.
The government of former prime minister Zoran Zaev from the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) accepted the framework, but the decision contributed to the political downfall of both Zaev and his party.
Hristijan Mickoski, from the right-wing VMRO-DPMNE, who came to power in June 2024, has taken a more cautious approach, insisting that constitutional changes can only proceed if there are firm guarantees that Sofia will not introduce new demands.
Such guarantees, however, are not forthcoming. Neither the European Commission nor successive Bulgarian governments have been willing—or able—to provide assurances that the current conditions represent the final hurdle.
Years of political instability in Bulgaria, marked by repeated general elections, seven since April 2021, and fragile coalitions, have further complicated dialogue, often leaving Skopje without a consistent interlocutor.
The situation has become even more complex following the recent electoral victory of former president Rumen Radev, who is often described as having pro-Russian positions, and whose Progressive Bulgaria (PB) party secured a large majority.
Radev, a former air force commander, has been a prominent figure in Bulgarian politics and has served as president since 2017, shaping the country’s foreign and domestic policy debate.
North Macedonia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Zoran Dimitrovski recently said that he expects to engage in dialogue with the new government in Sofia in the coming period and to work towards a mutually acceptable solution.
Radev’s victory signals tougher stance from Sofia
Although some in North Macedonia hope for a shift in tone, analysts suggest the opposite is more likely.
“Victory of Rumen Radev in elections in Bulgaria does not signal a facilitation of the enlargement process, but on the contrary – it strengthens the existing dynamics of conditionality,” Dimitar Nikolovski, executive director of Eurothink – Centre for European Strategies, told IntelliNews in a written statement.
Nikolovski warned that, in the context of North Macedonia, “the chances of eventual unblocking are even smaller,” pointing out that Radev “has so far been one of the most consistent bearers of a hard line towards Skopje,” with “no indications that there will be a deviation from that position in the new political cycle.”
On the contrary, Nikolovski added, “one can expect an even more emphasized insistence on the full implementation of the obligations that North Macedonia has already accepted as part of the negotiating framework.”
This effectively narrows the scope of the accession process. As Nikolovski explained, “this practically reduces the enlargement process, in this bilateral segment, to the technical fulfillment of conditions, with no room for political reinterpretation or revision of what was agreed.”
As a result, he concluded, “unblocking in the short term is not a realistic scenario – not due to a lack of European will in general, but due to the clearly defined Bulgarian position that remains unchanged.”
Reforms advance, but politics hold the key
This dynamic highlights a broader structural issue within the EU enlargement process. While reforms in areas such as the rule of law, anti-corruption measures and institutional governance remain essential, they are no longer sufficient to ensure forward movement, Nikolovski stated.
North Macedonia has made measurable, albeit uneven, progress in aligning its legislation with EU standards. Yet the decisive factor remains political, not technical.
Mickoski has acknowledged this reality, framing the government’s strategy around domestic reform while continuing to seek dialogue with Sofia and Brussels.
In recent remarks, he described the situation as “chaotic” and “confusing”, reflecting the contradictory signals Skopje receives — encouraged to engage bilaterally, yet reminded that the dispute is embedded within a European framework.
Despite these frustrations, the government has focused on advancing its reform agenda, partly to maintain credibility with EU institutions and partly to improve domestic governance regardless of accession prospects.
The anticipated European Commission report is expected to recognise progress in certain areas, though longstanding concerns about judicial independence and corruption are likely to persist.
However, even a positive assessment would not automatically translate into progress in accession talks. As Nikolovski stressed, reforms alone cannot guarantee advancement: “reforms are a necessary but not sufficient condition for progress in the current context,” given that the process remains conditioned by the bilateral dispute.
Human rights tensions add to bilateral strain
While Bulgaria continues to press for the protection of minority rights in North Macedonia, it has yet to implement rulings by the European Court of Human Rights concerning the Macedonian minority on its own territory, with hundreds of decisions dating back to 2006.
Beyond the high-level political dynamics, individual cases continue to illustrate the sensitivity of relations between Skopje and Sofia.
The recent controversy surrounding Macedonian lawyer Toni Menkinoski—reportedly banned from entering Bulgaria for 10 years over his work representing Macedonian organisations seeking registration there—has attracted attention at the Council of Europe.
Commissioner for Human Rights Michael O’Flaherty has indicated that the case will be examined, underscoring the broader human rights dimension of the dispute.
Looking ahead, the prospects for rapid progress remain limited. A gradual improvement in reforms and administrative preparedness is likely, but without a political breakthrough—either through constitutional changes in North Macedonia or a shift in Bulgaria’s position—accession talks will remain effectively frozen.
For a country that has already made significant concessions in pursuit of its European future, this impasse raises difficult questions about the credibility and fairness of the enlargement process.
As Nikolovski’s assessment suggests, North Macedonia remains caught in a holding pattern, where “progress is more dependent on political than purely reform factors,” leaving its EU future uncertain and increasingly shaped by developments beyond its control.