President Vladimir Putin has given a warning to long-time ally Armenia: if it continues to seek entry into the European Union, it can say goodbye to cheap Russian oil and gas.
The Russian leader issued a warning ahead of today’s parliamentary elections in Armenia, which, according to polls, will be won by the party of pro-Western Prime Minister Nikola Pashinyan.
This is not an empty threat. Armenia, a landlocked country of three million people with centuries-old ties to Russia, is heavily dependent on Moscow, which has already imposed temporary bans on important Armenian exports ahead of the election.
But Putin’s words also reflect an uncomfortable truth for Moscow. While it is waging a war in Ukraine that, after more than four years of fighting, has no end in sight, Russia is waging an increasingly intense and complex defensive battle around the world to preserve its geopolitical influence.
As Moscow directs resources to the war in Ukraine, the European Union and the United States are seeking to win over, but also to pressure, traditional Russian allies and interests – both in what Moscow considers its own backyard and in more distant areas.
From Havana and Caracas, through Belgrade to the steppes of Central Asia, and even in West Africa, where Russian forces are helping fight Islamists, Russian influence is under pressure.
Armenia, a long-time recipient of Russian aid and host to a Russian military base, signed a partnership agreement with the United States last month, and Pashinyan has received strong support from President Donald Trump.
Armenia, once part of the Soviet Union, also adopted a law last year establishing the legal basis for EU accession.
photo: Reuters
“Of course, we are deeply concerned about the policy of the Armenian authorities aimed at rapprochement with the Euro-Atlantic community, whose core policy is directed against Moscow,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters.
“The Anglo-Saxons openly boast that they are, as they say, ‘pulling’ Armenia out of the bear hug of ‘authoritarian Russia.’”
Russian war bloggers and analysts say Russia is facing a concerted and largely Western attempt – as in other regions around the world – to be pushed out of the wider South Caucasus region, of which Armenia is a part.
“In such conditions, the issue of adjusting Russia’s strategy (to encompass soft power and economic leverage) becomes crucial,” the Russian analytical Telegram channel “Secret Office,” which has more than 400.000 followers, announced.
A source close to the Russian government said that Moscow sees that countries like Armenia are “all waiting to see how the war in Ukraine will end” and that some are already building new ties while Moscow is mostly preoccupied with other issues.
From Havana and Caracas, through Belgrade to the steppes of Central Asia, and even in West Africa, where Russian forces are helping fight Islamists, Russian influence is under pressure.
For Moscow, the final straw was that Armenia hosted a meeting of European leaders last month, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Since then, Russia has temporarily banned imports of numerous Armenian goods, warned that it could suspend supplies of cheap oil, gas and rough diamonds, hinted that Armenia could be expelled from the Eurasian Economic Union, a Russia-led trade bloc, and recalled its ambassador from Armenia for consultations in Moscow.
Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s powerful Security Council known for his harsh statements, also hinted that if the Armenian prime minister is not careful, he could suffer the fate of Bolshevik revolutionary Leon Trotsky, who was killed with an ice axe on the orders of Joseph Stalin.
Meanwhile, Trump, who Moscow had hoped would use strong pressure to force Ukraine to seek peace, has instead targeted three countries traditionally friendly to Russia – Iran, Venezuela and Cuba.
His moves have boosted oil prices, providing some relief to Russia’s war-ravaged economy, but they have also exposed Moscow’s inability to provide significant assistance to its old friends. Havana has so far received only one shipment of Russian oil.
In Europe, Moscow complains that it is faced with an increasingly hostile and rearming continent, while at the same time offering the prospect of EU membership to countries where Russia once had influence.
Putin ally Viktor Orban lost power in Hungary in April, leading to the release of billions of euros in EU funds for Budapest. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, another Russian ally, is also under pressure, with moves underway to end visa-free travel for Russians as Belgrade moves closer to EU membership.
Russia is also feeling the pressure in Transnistria, a separatist enclave with a Russian garrison, which is internationally recognized as part of Moldova, whose current political leadership wants to join the EU.
Russia is also concerned about what it sees as the growing penetration of Western influence into Central Asia, while Putin in the South Caucasus is trying to overcome a turbulent period in relations with Azerbaijan, an oil producer that has strengthened ties with the West in recent years.
Prepared by: A. Š.
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