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    Who won the redistricting fight? GOP with +8 to +10 seats in the Deep South
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    Who won the redistricting fight? GOP with +8 to +10 seats in the Deep South

    [Original content] The GOP is forecasted to pick up +8 to +10 U.S. House seats via legislative redistricting as new congressional maps are finalized.

    Geographically, most projected GOP gains are concentrated in Deep South states which have a long history of Voting Rights Act litigation. Several of the key seat pickups come from districts previously created to provide Black representation (eg, TN, AL and LA). Legal challenges may still overturn some maps.

    Sources used to substantiate this chart below:

    State Headline Why Date Impact
    Net impact +8 to +10 GOP seats
    Texas Abbott signs Texas map into law (Texas Tribune) Legislature redrawn map Aug 29, 2025 +5 GOP seats
    Ohio Ohio commission passes congressional map (Ohio Capital Journal) Legislature redrawn map Oct 31, 2025 0 to +2 GOP seats
    California California passes Prop 50, adding ~5 Dem seats (CalMatters) Voter-approved map Nov 4, 2025 +5 Dem seats
    North Carolina Judges allow NC map giving GOP another seat (PBS) Legislature redrawn map Nov 26, 2025 +1 GOP seat
    Utah Utah Supreme Court keeps Dem-leaning map (AP) Court enforced voter-approved map Feb 21, 2026 +1 Dem seat
    Missouri Missouri court upholds Trump-backed redistricting (AP) Legislature redrawn map Mar 19, 2026 +1 GOP seat
    Virginia Virginia approves redistricting, giving Dems edge (BBC) Voter-approved map Apr 21, 2026 +4 Dem seats
    Tennessee Tennessee GOP map erases majority-Black district (Yahoo) Legislature redrawn map May 7, 2026 +1 GOP seat
    Virginia Supreme Court rejects VA Dems' bid to restore map (WSJ) Court blocked voter-approved map May 15, 2026 +4 GOP seats
    Florida Florida judge upholds new GOP map (Washington Examiner) Legislature redrawn map May 26, 2026 +4 GOP seats
    South Carolina SC Senate rejects Trump's redraw push (PBS) Legislature failed to redraw May 26, 2026 No change
    Louisiana Louisiana passes map erasing Black district (Yahoo) Legislature redrawn map May 29, 2026 +1 GOP seat
    Alabama Supreme Court allows Alabama's GOP-favoring map (Yahoo) Court enforced map Jun 2, 2026 +1 GOP seat

    Posted by mediadotgames

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    47 Comments

    2. Plastic-Current-4583 on

      Um. Is that a map of the Confederate states?

      It looks pretty close to a map of the Confederate states.

    3. MonsteraBigTits on

      Ohio really is the outlier, i propose eliminating the state, have it be incorporated into michigan and invalidate all their republican decisions.

    4. iswearnotagain10 on

      It’s probably going to end up being +3 gain for the GOP, not +10. 2-3 of those Texas seats won’t flip, same with 2 of those Florida seats, neither of the Ohio seats will likely flip, and a Virginia seat was about to flip anyway

      So for the GOP, it’s TX+2, FL+2, TN+1, MO+1, AL+1, LA+1, and NC+1 for 9 flips in total. CA, VA, and UT combine for 6 (one of the CA districts was going to flip anyway)

      So net GOP+3

    5. MrTexandude on

      Texas will not be +5, the Abbottmander assumes that the GOP improves on its 2024 performance, Texas GOP is dulu and over confident. Its going to be +3 or +2 GOP instead, with at least 2 blue RGV districts holding.

      Florida is not going to be +4, more like +3 or less

      Regardless of all the Republican redistricting (which was more effective in safe republican states like Missouri & Tennessee etc) – Democrats are still favored to take back the house.

    8. PineBNorth85 on

      When politicians can pick the voters rather than the other way around there is no real democracy.

    9. ben_jacques1110 on

      The thing about gerrymandering is that it spreads its preferred voter base thin. While these red states may have redistricted to have hypothetically more seats won by the GOP, the margin of those hypothetical wins is much smaller, so it becomes much easier to flip them to the democrats. So, in other words, all this redistricting may bite them in the ass big time.

    10. rrsullivan3rd on

      A bunch of this gerrymandering diluted reliably red districts as to make them much less reliably red, a small shift in the voting trends in these new districts could actually backfire on the Republicans.

    11. Acceptable_Cow5326 on

      Crazy that SC of all places shot down their redistricting plans, for once it’s our neighbors embarrassing themselves

    13. LadySayoria on

      I only hope that them thinning out other districts tip the more redder ones bluer to the point this plan backfires spectacularly. But this is America. Nothing good happens here.

    14. rollerbase on

      Not a fair fight when you’ve got the Supreme Court putting a finger on the scale constantly.

    15. panzer-IX on

      I remember I was checking in on r/conservative a while back and they were talking about how great it was that the republican party was gerrymandering.

    16. PoopShitDickFart on

      I can tell you who lost this bull shit. The United States of America. This shit makes The USA look stupid and childish.

    17. ArringtonsCourage on

      The shift in Utah is not the result of state legislators gerrymandering the districts either by republicans or democrats rather it is the result of a proposition that was passed by popular vote going into effect that undid prior and prevents future gerrymandering. The republican legislators in this state are trying to do everything they can to prevent this from going into effect.

    18. larryburns2000 on

      I hate when both sides race to the bottom. We see this in the games around picking federal judges too. It’s like a contest of who can go lower each round

    19. jmcokie on

      Those heavy red districts still rely on sub 40% turnouts to stay red. Even Gerrymandered a high turnout election could still flip “safe” districts. The woe is us posts probably help the districts staying red by discouraging participation. Its obviously an uphill battle, but not lost until we lose it.

    20. screenmonkey on

      Florida’s Supreme Court is a joke. They are violating their state constitution.

    21. Nitimur__In__Vetitum on

      Our system is a joke and the sooner people realize the illegitimacy of the US Government, the better.

    22. Thetman38 on

      We can only hope that Republicans are so incompetent that they screwed this up and stretched their base too thin. There is some data that suggests by using the Trump coalition they may be brining in “soft electorate” such as southern border counties of mostly Latino heritage and farmers that are not too pleased. Plus with the screw worm killing cattle because of cuts Republicans are directly linked too, we will see…

      but also, fuck mid-decade redistricting and fuck politicians picking their voters.

    24. TheHaplessBard on

      I’m just surprised that there’s enough political competition within Utah to warrant even an additional Democratic seat.

    26. CharlesIngalls_Pubes on

      Louisiana can be such a disappointment. I’ve written my “representatives” to remind them how chickenshit they are for backing the most geriatric criminal in US politics.

    30. Zeekr0n on

      The texas one could be surprisingly competitive since all their R districts went down to around +5 or +8

    31. AdOne5089 on

      No more playing nice. WHEN democrats retake power, all of these thugs that violated their state supreme courts need to be taken to court. Gerrymandering needs to be banned nationwide. There’s absolutely no excuse for politicians being able to make themselves immune to the consequences of their actions by avoiding their voters

    34. toeknn on

      Every single districr should be gerrymandered. Gerrymandered so there is no safe seat. Every district every election competitive

    36. TS_Enlightened on

      All this work to still get blown out in midterms in every single competitive district.

    37. AnonymousMeeblet on

      The main problem that the Democrats faced in this case was the fact that they still believe that they should obey the orders of courts when told that they can’t do something.

      Virginia is the quintessential example of this. When the Republicans did essentially what Virginia did in Ohio and the state Supreme Court told them that they couldn’t do that, they just ignored the state Supreme Court and did it anyways and nobody stopped them because the courts have no power to enforce their rulings without the backing of the executive branch.

    39. Chipped_Ruby_11214 on

      The Rs might not win as many of these close gerrymandered districts as they think they will. Either way democracy has already lost. If you think you live in one where one person, one vote is the law of the land, then you live in a fantasy world.

    40. Little_Creme_5932 on

      If Trump sucks bad enough, some of those districts they made to be red will turn out to be blue.

    43. ChardResponsible9728 on

      Nobody wins a war like this. Everyone loses except a small minority of voters, billionaires and mega corporations.

    44. fuckdatguy on

      What do you expect… Blatant power grabs to seize or hold on to power are the norm in Developing nations that are not politically stable

    45. HoldOnDearLife on

      It is all being played out in front of our eyes. Both sides are in on it, and we citizens will end up paying dearly for it.

    46. FinsFan305 on

      Thanks Virginia! Bunch of idiots starting a redistricting war they knew Democrats would lose.

    47. Firesword52 on

      The side that had the supreme Court make it so that only their side could do it.