DWP used a regression model to try and predict household benefit fraud based on financial characteristics.
In a pilot, this only had a 1 in 3 false positive rate. However, in the full nationwide use, the false positive rate was 2 in 3.
The Guardian is not claiming anyone was incorrectly arrested or punished for fraud, only that because of the high false positive rate, a lot of people were investigated and nothing fraudulent was found. So 200,000 people investigated and nothing found implies here 100,000 cases of fraud were found.
I mean, that’s just the reality of trying to detect fraud. No one knows exactly where it is occurring so you have to conduct investigations and they might uncover nothing. You hope the cost of investigating is less than the fraudulent money you recover which is buried in the article and says yes the investigations is still value for money:
> Nevertheless, the system did save the taxpayer money, with every pound spent undertaking full case reviews of suspect claims returning £2.71 in savings, according to figures for 2021/22 released by the DWP.
ProlapseProvider on
I’m bipolar and they took all my money from me, I said to them I can work but I don’t know when I go manic so it’s up to the people I work with to have to understand and manage that, they did not reply. They also stopped my mothers pension who lives in a different house and has not much to with me at all. She asked why they stopped it and they said they thought she was me?!?! They pay her again.
I applied again and they give me £23 a week. So I’m thankful for all the years I paid in (like 20yrs). I’d get more if I leave the country and come back pretending to be an illegal immigrant.
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Version without the Guardian spin.
DWP used a regression model to try and predict household benefit fraud based on financial characteristics.
In a pilot, this only had a 1 in 3 false positive rate. However, in the full nationwide use, the false positive rate was 2 in 3.
The Guardian is not claiming anyone was incorrectly arrested or punished for fraud, only that because of the high false positive rate, a lot of people were investigated and nothing fraudulent was found. So 200,000 people investigated and nothing found implies here 100,000 cases of fraud were found.
I mean, that’s just the reality of trying to detect fraud. No one knows exactly where it is occurring so you have to conduct investigations and they might uncover nothing. You hope the cost of investigating is less than the fraudulent money you recover which is buried in the article and says yes the investigations is still value for money:
> Nevertheless, the system did save the taxpayer money, with every pound spent undertaking full case reviews of suspect claims returning £2.71 in savings, according to figures for 2021/22 released by the DWP.
I’m bipolar and they took all my money from me, I said to them I can work but I don’t know when I go manic so it’s up to the people I work with to have to understand and manage that, they did not reply. They also stopped my mothers pension who lives in a different house and has not much to with me at all. She asked why they stopped it and they said they thought she was me?!?! They pay her again.
I applied again and they give me £23 a week. So I’m thankful for all the years I paid in (like 20yrs). I’d get more if I leave the country and come back pretending to be an illegal immigrant.