The Economist’s final prediction points to a Tory wipeout in Britain
https://www.economist.com/britain/2024/06/26/the-economists-final-prediction-points-to-a-tory-wipeout-in-britain
Posted by marketrent
The Economist’s final prediction points to a Tory wipeout in Britain
https://www.economist.com/britain/2024/06/26/the-economists-final-prediction-points-to-a-tory-wipeout-in-britain
Posted by marketrent
29 Comments
[Source report](https://www.economist.com/britain/2024/06/26/the-economists-final-prediction-points-to-a-tory-wipeout-in-britain):
*With the cut-off date for postal-voting applications already past, the Tories are polling at historically awful levels.*
*Between May 30th and June 21st, WeThink asked 18,595 adults how they intend to vote in the general election. The results suggest Labour has a 20-percentage-point lead over the Conservatives, by 42% to 22%. Reform UK is on course for 14% of the vote, the Liberal Democrats 11% and the Green Party 6%.*
*This is a dramatic turnaround from the 2019 election, when the Tories led by 12 points, and would be the largest swing between the main parties in modern history.*
[Other comment](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jun/27/uk-general-election-2024-live-updates-debate-betting-scandal-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer-tories-labour?page=with:block-667d1d948f0879fc3d68e220#block-667d1d948f0879fc3d68e220):
*But being scrupulous about data, the Economist does not accept this polling as the final word. It also has its own election prediction model, which incorporates the results of conventional polling, and other MRP polls.*
*It too predicts a huge Labour majority, but not such a colossal one. “Its central estimate is that Labour will have 429 MPs, the Conservatives 117, the Liberal Democrats 42 seats, the SNP 23 and Reform UK 2,” the Economist says.*
Stop it, you’re turning me on.
Also, never underestimate this country’s ability to self-sabotage.
I’ll hold my optimism until the results are in.
> …with only daya to go, for this sort of result even to be a possibility is remarkable
*and the policies we’ve expounded for decades have had nothing to do with, nothing at all. No sir, not us.*
…all in all you’re just a-nother brick in the (red) wall
A Tory wipeout isn’t surprising. The most surprising thing about these polls is the fact that there are seemingly 14% of the people that have stated they’d vote for Reform!!! 14% that think a bunch of racist hatemongers that openly support Putin and the Russian propaganda without shame are the perfect ones to lead this country! 14% that are ok to support a bunch of traitors that will be the first ones to jump ship if and when this country goes past the threshold of being saved, not to mention they’d be the ones to push the country past that threshold!
I think politics are going to get wild over the next couple years. There are some pretty wild trends and things I think will be likely.
1. The Tories left will mostly be ones that are least palatable to the Tory base making it exceptionally hard to recover.
2. Lib-dems have a damn good shot of being opposition meaning the right will basically be a small fringe within parliament.
3. Farage is likely to be elected and become the loudest and certainly the most well known right-wing politician in parliament.
4. Labour are likely to have so many seats that they’re going to have a ton of internal factions with all the headaches, and in fighting that will cause.
5. Labour are almost certainly going to become very unpopular relatively quickly especially when their actual policies are announced and digested by the public. I think it’s even likely that during the next general election they suffer a collapse similar to the one the Tories are going through.
Archive link is still paywalled, please copy the article into a comment.
I live in the Louth and Horncastle constituency (Victoria Atkins is running for reelection). Taking boundary changes into account, we’ve been Conservative since 1924, and throughout my life there’s always been a lot of vocal support for the party, but for the first time I feel as though their dominance is under threat. I’ll freely admit that I probably live in a bubble, but dozens of people I know who voted Conservative in the 2019 GE will be voting for another party this time around. Even the Conservative councillor who lives a few houses down the road from me mentioned that she’ll be voting for somebody else on 4th July.
This kind of prediction worries me. I think it will spur on the right-wing public to go out in force and vote Tory, even people who don’t usually vote.
The important thing to remember is that this is what The Economist predicts will happen *if people vote on 4th July in line with recent polls*. The worry is that people will see this and assume it’s a done deal, meaning that there’s no need for them to bother voting.
Levido is flooding boomer Facebook with lies to prevent it.
Tax ,pension , national ulez, all lies and all flooding them .
Compared to younger gens they are very naive online and far less likely to fact check.
Very big risk it’s much closer.
Insightful
Thank god we have the economist to shed light on the state of the uk
I find these things a bit ridiculous. There are Tories in Labour, Lib dems and now Reform, who are basically the BNP.
We’ve seen the revolving door between parties, and how they all switch party to keep their jobs and protect their own hyde.
Elphicke most recently was it? Welcomed by Labour with open arms, but her track record couldn’t be more Tory, voting on all the draconian measures for austerity.
The Conservative party will almost be wiped out, still probably garnering 20% – 30% of the vote share, but all those Tory politicians are going nowhere. They’ll continue to fill the seats in parliament with a different coloured tie.
Polls have been wrong before…
People still need to vote for it to actually happen!
I was looking at the candidates for Hastings. It’s depressing.
Labour – middle class white woman that worked for charity. So I won’t vote for her as a lot of them have that background, we need less of these types and those with industry experience
Lib Dem – a guy that used to be an actor and supports farming and has a countryside vibe
Reform – immigrant from Bangladesh that used to be a Tory for 12 years then was removed after drink driving and then driving whilst banned. Lol
Greens – anti science policies so can’t vote for them
Independent – his main point was on Gaza so I can’t vote for him
I might be forced into voting Communist party. I think I’ll have to as I don’t like the other candidates so it’ll be a protest vote.
Obviously Economist readers won’t understand this but the tories will still be in power after the election, just wearing different colour ties.
So who gives a shit? The only hope is for some decent opposition, and let’s hope the remaining centre left parties can hoover up some disillusioned labour votes.
It’s interesting that while the rest of the world is switching their support to right wing parties, Brits are moving to the left. This is going to be a huge test for Starmer because the rest of the world will be watching to see if he gets it right.
In 2019, the constituency in which I live (Mid Bedfordshire) was a rock-solid Tory majority, and had been since 1920. Now, its a marginal seat, having been won by Labour in a by-election less than a year ago.
That is the scale of the change that has taken place.
Beware the shy tories.
The tories at 15-20% – that’s just those who’d freely admit it.
There are going to be loads that are embarrassed to say so out loud, but will still vote tory in the privacy of the ballot box.
I don’t see it. I think they will have more than enough to be the opposition…but this is a great opportunity for everyone to get out there and make it a reality. It may never happen again. Literally vote for anyone and everyone who can deliver defeat after defeat.
Don’t listen to super majority or pleas to “vote for us to keep Starmer honest” nonsense. Just remember they don’t deserve your vote and should be removed. As many as possible
All these articles about the Tories getting wiped out feels like an attempt to scare out as many reticent Tory voters as possible to go vote and make Labour voters complacent.
I’m hoping they get obliterated, but hoping dramatic predictions of a wipeout come true will probably lead to disappointment.
Not going to counting any chickens to all the votes are counted!
Get out and vote! Wipe the fuckers out!
They deserve it.
The Tory party handed control over to the Brexiteers post 2016.
And the country gave the Brexiteers control of the entire country in 2019.
They’ve done an absolute piss poor job of running the country
The tories have created multiple generations of “I will never vote tory” and that’s on them.
I just cannot bring myself to believe it will be this bad for them. The cynicism in me thinks the powers that be are saying all of this to try and lull people into not voting
Im overly excited for this. Watching the Tories destroy themselves these past months has been a real treat.
I’ll be glad to see it. Less glad to see that liar Starmer become PM.
Basically if Reform get a higher percentage if goodnight Tories. I hope they do get wiped out.
Please, just for once, let this ridiculous headline be true.
Please let there not be a terrible scandal for Kier Starmer/ Labour before the election