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Windsor residents could be in for a mild fall followed by an unusually warm and relatively snow-free winter, according to Environment Canada senior climatologist Dave Phillips.
Phillips said the fall forecast is calling for temperatures above normal and precipitation below normal across Windsor and much of Ontario.
“There’s a lot to like about a fall,” Phillips told Windsor Morning host Amy Dodge.
He noted Windsor has historically been one of the best places in Canada for mild fall weather, with a later first frost, relatively sunny conditions and a longer stretch of comfortable temperatures.
“It’s the colour change season and that looks pretty positive this year in Ontario,” he said.
Windsor Morning8:17As fall 2026 starts today, what kind of weather can we expect for the season?
This is the first day of fall. What can we expect weather-wise, over the coming season? Windsor Morning host Amy Dodge spoke to Dave Phillips from Environment Canada about the forecast.
The forecast comes after what Phillips described as an unusually uneventful summer in Windsor.
Phillips said Windsor’s summer temperatures and precipitation were close to normal, as was the number of hot days.
But he expects the weather to shift as fall progresses. Residents can expect cooler nights, with temperatures dipping below 10 C on some nights, while the first frost is likely to hold off until later in the season.
Phillips said the first snowfall is not expected until late November.
The bigger weather story, however, could come during the winter.
‘The polar vortex doesn’t go away’
Phillips pointed to a strong El Niño pattern as a major factor behind the forecast for a warmer-than-normal winter.
“This is the Godzilla of El Niños, the strongest one we’ve ever seen in likely 1,000 years,” Phillips said.
He cautioned that the presence of El Niño does not mean Windsor will be completely free of winter weather.
“The polar vortex doesn’t go away,” he said. “There’ll be some times that you’ll be maybe shoveling.”
But Phillips expects snow that does fall to melt relatively quickly, leaving Windsor residents seeing “more brown and green than snow” for much of the season.
Walks in parks may be on the increase as the leaves change colours in Windsor. Take a listen to some of those taking in the vibrant surrounding during their walk in Ojibway Park.
He compared the coming winter to the 2023-24 winter, when Windsor experienced temperatures more than 4 C above normal and received roughly one-third of its usual snowfall.
Phillips said Windsor normally receives roughly equal amounts of rain and snow during December, January and February. During the 2023-24 winter, however, the city received about five times more rain than snow.
He said the coming winter could have a similar character, with the snow season potentially ending by late February.
“I’m never cancelling winters, even in Windsor,” Phillips said. “But my gosh, this might be very well the first one.”
Phillips also pointed out that a mild, low-snow winter can have drawbacks. Agriculture can be affected because snow provides moisture that can be important for spring conditions.
For many residents, however, the benefits could include lower home-heating costs, easier commuting and fewer winter-related accidents.
“So, those that are not big fans of winter, I think this is their time to enjoy it,” Phillips said of people who are not fans of winter.