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Diesel prices have surged to their highest levels in years as geopolitical shocks tighten global supply. Russian refinery outages and export restrictions – triggered by Ukraine’s drone strikes – have sharply reduced available barrels, while U.S.-Iran tensions and tanker attacks have pushed U.S. Gulf Coast Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel benchmarks to record highs. With Russian and Middle Eastern flows constrained, buyers have turned increasingly to U.S. exports, widening arbitrage opportunities and reinforcing the upward pressure on diesel prices. Arbitrage opportunities in diesel markets refer to moments when price differences between regions are large enough that traders can profit by moving diesel from a cheaper market to a more expensive one. This aligns with Platts’ assessments: elevated prices, tighter inventories and trade flows increasingly driven by geopolitical risk.
Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.