“This is something that the grid should be able to handle,” the University of Houston’s Vice President of Energy and Innovation said.
HOUSTON — A major cold front has made its way into the Houston area and across Texas – and with many people concerned about potential power outages, KHOU 11 News asked several energy experts what to expect this week.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, issued a Weather Watch from Jan. 6 to Jan. 10 due to the forecasted cold weather. ERCOT spokesperson Christy Penders sent KHOU 11 News a statement Monday that read, in part:
“ERCOT is closely monitoring the winter weather conditions. ERCOT issued a Weather Watch yesterday, which is a heads up that we are experiencing higher demand due to the weather conditions with the possibility for lower operating reserves. At this time, grid conditions are normal and are expected to remain normal. ERCOT will provide updates to the public if conditions change.”
Many people across the region are still traumatized by the freeze in February 2021, where the storm led to widespread power outages and the deaths of hundreds of people. Energy experts said they believe the grid will be stable this week and do not expect to see anything close to what happened in 2021.
“This is something that the grid should be able to handle, especially given some of the changes that have been put in place,” Ramanan Krishnamoorti, the University of Houston Vice President of Energy and Innovation, said.
Those changes included ERCOT winterizing power plants, which was mandated by state law. Doug Lewin, host of the Energy Capital Podcast, said another big difference between now and 2021 is that there is more battery capacity.
“I don’t see there being any problems with supply and demand,” Lewin said. “We do have a whole lot of battery storage on the grid right now. Winter Storm Uri, we had 200. We now have over 10,000 megawatts of batteries. So, I suspect we’ll break an all-time battery record [Tuesday] morning.”
Lewin also broke down the numbers. He said this week’s peak demand will be around 73,000 megawatts at approximately 8 a.m. Tuesday. Lewin said that is lower than the ERCOT’s highest peak – and much lower than what experts predict was the demand for the 2021 freeze.
“If Winter Storm Uri conditions hit today, we would see somewhere around 92,000 megawatts of demand, that’s what they expect. To put that in perspective, the most we’ve ever used in the summertime, when it was 105 degrees or whatever, is about 85,000.”
Still, Krishnamoorti said there is always the chance that a major change in the forecast could throw a wrench in experts’ predictions.
“I feel fairly comfortable, but you know, the challenge of weather is that it throws up unexpected surprises,” Krishnamoorti said. “If we have a lot of freezing rain or a lot of ice that gets formed along especially Dallas between Dallas, Lubbock and Midland, then we’re very likely to see at least in local regions failure of the electric grid because of just ice formation. And then you might also get wind energy those turbines would not rotate because of ice that gets formed in those.”
KHOU 11 News energy expert Ed Hirs said while the winterization of equipment was a good step, more needs to be done.
“The state required these power plants to improve their weatherization, so wrapping pipes, insulation, things that we do at home, but otherwise, the state has done nothing. And we’re in a much more precious position than we were,” Hirs said. “Prior to Winter Storm Uri in February of 2021, there was a 5% likelihood of rolling blackouts. Well, today, if a storm like Uri hits, it’s an 80% likelihood.”
KHOU 11 News asked Hirs what it would take for him and other energy experts to feel confident in the long-term stability of the Texas power grid, especially in extreme weather events.
“We need to build more power plants,” Hirs said. “The coal power plants average more than 55 years in age. The natural gas power plants average more than 30 years in age. These are deteriorating and reaching the end of their operating livelihoods, and they’re not going to be renewed under the current economic market model that the government is employing here.”
Hirs continued his calls for state leaders and the Texas Public Utilities Commission to do more.
ERCOT said people can use their mobile app to check real-time and extended energy grid conditions. You can also use it to check the supply and demand.
Again, ERCOT said there is no current expectation of an energy emergency for this week. One way to help the grid is to reduce your electric use during peak demand times.