Dependency and depopulation? Confronting the consequences of a new demographic reality – Exploring the implications of a new demographic reality brought on by falling fertility and increasing longevity.
https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/dependency-and-depopulation-confronting-the-consequences-of-a-new-demographic-reality#/
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From the article
* **Falling fertility rates are propelling major economies toward population collapse in this century.** Two-thirds of humanity lives in countries with fertility below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per family. By 2100, populations in some major economies will fall by 20 to 50 percent, based on UN projections.
* **Age structures are inverting—from pyramids to obelisks—as the number of older people grows and the number of younger people shrinks.** The first wave of this demographic shift is hitting advanced economies and China, where the share of people of working age will fall to 59 percent in 2050, from 67 percent today. Later waves will engulf younger regions within one or two generations. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only exception.
* **Consumers and workers will be older and increasingly in the developing world.** Seniors will account for one-quarter of global consumption by 2050, double their share in 1997. Developing countries will provide a growing share of global labor supply and of consumption, making their productivity and prosperity vital for global growth.
* **The current calculus of economies cannot support existing income and retirement norms—something must give.** In first wave countries across advanced economies and China, GDP per capita growth could slow by 0.4 percent annually on average from 2023 to 2050, and up to 0.8 percent in some countries, unless productivity growth increases by two to four times or people work one to five hours more per week. Retirement systems might need to channel as much as 50 percent of labor income to fund a 1.5-time increase in the gap between the aggregate consumption and income of seniors. Later wave countries, take note.
* **In confronting the consequences of demographic change, societies enter uncharted waters.** Absent action, younger people will inherit lower economic growth and shoulder the cost of more retirees, while the traditional flow of wealth between generations erodes. Long-standing work practices and the social contract must change. More fundamentally, countries will need to raise fertility rates to avert depopulation—a societal shift without precedent in modern history.
There is a helplessness here. The implicit belief most (all?) have that where we are at now was/is inevitable. That the end state of Industrialization, (be it any combination of women becoming educated, quality of life increases, Big Tech, etc) if performed in a million ‘multiverses’, would all end up the same. Fertility below 2.1, the replacement rate.
I don’t share that helplessness, because of an awareness that reproduction has been purposefully reduced in decades prior. And therefore, the current world state is an artificial state. Any artificial state is reversible.
I would have to persuade others that the intent to reduce reproduction has been performed in a coordinated manner. I don’t believe I’m persuasive enough.
The dumb take: We have to kill the oldies.
My take: We have to kill one third of the bullshit jobs. 💁🏻♂️
Considering humanity does not cope with unappealing, vague, hard-to-define problems of any complexity (in other words, problems that the majority has no desire to face), I would not expect humanity to resolve this problem. Just like nuclear armament, climate collapse, and overpopulation, we will watch it all happen and bicker about the outcome while it continues to roll over us.
The great filter. My tip is to exercise regularly and eat right, the healthcare/seniorcare will be atrocious for the 99%.