“Gas demand in Europe displays strong seasonality and sudden and short-term spikes are normal during winter,” the report states.
“But the growth of wind generation brings another layer of uncertainty, with additional peaks in gas demand, for which size and duration are harder to predict.”
One clear finding is that although the combination of Dunkelflaute and cold temperatures can influence gas prices, there is no clear correlation between total gas demand and prices.
The report says: “With limited short-term flexibility on the demand side — for now, this should improve in the future — flexible and rapidly available gas supply will be increasingly crucial to balance the system in Europe.”
What are the key messages of the Dunkelflaute report?
Renewables’ intermittent nature means that Europe is relying on gas-fired power plants to keep energy flowing when not generated by greener alternatives.
Dunkelflaute events often coincide with colder temperatures, amplifying gas demand due to increased heating needs.
With this in mind, there are four key takeaways from Oxford Institute for Energy Studies’ paper.
They are:
- Gas-fired power plants remain the primary source of flexibility in Europe’s power system: Fluctuations in wind generation inevitably lead to increased reliance on gas-fired power plants
- The growing share of wind power in the energy mix creates unpredictable peaks in gas demand: These spikes are difficult to forecast in terms of both magnitude and duration
- The power sector’s relationship with gas demand has evolved: Previously a source of short-term flexibility, gas use for power generation has become more volatile and less predictable — and has also become more resilient to high gas prices
- With reduced flexibility on the demand side, the European market increasingly requires flexibility when it comes to supply: In 2024, this flexibility was primarily provided by gas storage facilities and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
“We need more clean firm generation, storage, grid infrastructure, demand response, et cetera, to tame Dunkelflaute — and today’s gas market has risen to the challenge,” says Brian Marrs, Senior Director, Energy Markets at Microsoft.