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    Asteroid YR43 odds of hitting Earth increased to 1 in 43
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    Asteroid YR43 odds of hitting Earth increased to 1 in 43

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    6 Comments

    2. magus-21 on

      Humans are bad at judging probabilities, so here’s an analogy:

      There is a slightly higher chance of getting snake eyes by rolling two d6s.

    3. Cerate on

      Scott Manley made a pretty good video, he predicted the odds of hitting earth will increase as the uncertainty on the asteroid position decreases (the error bar is smaller compared to earth’s diameter), until suddently it drops to zero… if it drops at all.

    4. mmmhmmhmmh on

      That’s just normal as better and better orbits are calculated with new observations, the fact is that if it decreases to 0 it will happen instantly from a higher odd, because earth ends out of trajectory suddenly as the uncertainty is being reduced