As of yesterday the odds that the asteroid “2024 YR4” will impact Earth have increased to 1 in 42. The asteroid is estimated at 130 to 330 feet long, and would impact on December 22nd, 2032. The risk corridor crosses parts of India, sub-Saharan Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and Northern South America.
https://www.supercluster.com/editorial/an-asteroid-stands-a-chance-at-impacting-earth-are-we-prepared
38 Comments
The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything is 1in 42.
And to think I was just worried about my social security benefits running out in 2032..
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I don’t really understand the math in this article but I prefer the stat that there is a 2% chance of it hitting earth.
Ok, 1 in 42 is starting to sound a little scary there. Even if its only a city levelling impact, that could be millions of people if in the wrong place.
If we have enough of the people on the southern hemisphere jump in unison we might be able to change that path to hit north America instead. Sweet release from this hell
Possibly a pretty massive evacuation if projected to hit near a populated area rather than ocean or desert, but dooable if refinement of the path confirms and impact point to within a few hundred miles. The other issue is how many “years without a summer” we’ll be looking at due to the dust cloud if it hits land; will this be another Krakatoa level event?
I forget, how big was the asteroid don’t look up?
Looks like I’ve got a 1 in 42 chance of booking a flight to India, Northern South America, or Sub Saharan Africa in 2032
Does that mean ~98% sure it won’t hit earth? Or is this like a 2% yes 18% no 80% maybe?
Ehh, wha? Finally a number that makes me look up for a moment.
So the part of the world that’s mostly fucked is about to get fisted?
[r/upliftingnews](https://reddit.com/r/upliftingnews)
It would obviously be a terrible thing for it to hit but I’d be lying if I said it wouldn’t be the slightest bit fun to live the end of the world.
Scott Manley said something about 40 MT explosion on impact. So we are talking about the Tsar bomb going off in a major city. Could kill millions of people.
But there is more than enough time to plan a mission to prevent that. Put a 1-2T payload on a Falcon Heavy and divert the asteroid in 2028/2029.
Whatever the risk corridor for impact is, the whole planet’s gonna feel it.
Why are the odds of it hitting us continuing to increase?
Can anyone explain LI5?
The odds have increased from 2.33% to 2.38%. Oh no…. Anyways….
Roughly a 2-5MT explosion, give or take.
Chelyabinsk was roughly 20m wide, this is 2-5x that.
If the odds continue to go up, it’ll be interesting to see how the world responds.
Evacuate?
Deny until death?
I guess they know when it will pass more accurately than where. Could China drain and refill the three-gorges dam just enough to put the US facing towards it at that time?
Elon is going to attempt to mine the asteroid for minerals as it hurdles toward earth
Scott Manley has a great couple of videos on this, first and foremost we have the capability and have demonstrated the ability to modify the orbital of the object enough to have it miss earth. Additionally the most likely event is that as we get more and more data on this asteroid the chances will go up and up until we finally realize it will be close but not hit and the chances drop to zero.
Still too early to be a real concern. If the covariances are still lining up for this in 2030, then it might start to be something worth worrying over.
And until we can do anything about it, probably best just to put it out of your minds.
Im gonna hold off buying Christmas presents until Dec 23rd
As explained by nsf, this is because we are more certain of the path it will take, not that we are more certain it will hit. It will keep growing until it doesn’t. And then it’ll drop to 0 (probably).
Don’t Panic, you’ll be fine. It always hits the poor.
So would the plan be resettle tens of millions of people into surrounding areas?
They should know area of impact long before it hits, but if it did hit odds are it would hit unpopulated land or an ocean.
Am I reading this wrong – 130-330 ft long – won’t that just burn up before hitting us?
I don’t think it’ll make any difference if it hits in 7 years. We might actually welcome it if it does.
It won’t happen. I’ve seen that film with what’s his name in it.
I can’t wait that long. Is there any chance another asteroid could hit sooner?
The certainty that Musk would want to claim it for one of his mining companies is 100%
We already did a test of this with the DART mission. We can change asteroids trajectories with small objects going at great speeds.
2032 is still a while off, but I think 2030 might be a good time to execute on DART2.0 if we are gonna do something.
And of course we know we’re in a shit timeline because Mar-a-Lago is nowhere near the impact zone.
Gotta start saving up for my ticket to sub-Saharan Africa so I can be right under it
Well, that could make for an interesting year.
Don’t look up!
(And tbh it would be relieving to know that nothing that happens now will matter).