[OC] Will asteroid hit the Earth in 2032? NASA gave up to 2.3% chance of impact.
Posted by sataky
[OC] Will asteroid hit the Earth in 2032? NASA gave up to 2.3% chance of impact.
Posted by sataky
27 Comments
DATA:
* Asteroid: NASA, Wolfram|Alpha
* Simulation: Wolfram NBodySimulation[]
TOOLS:
* Wolfram Mathematica
ARTICLE / CODE:
[https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/3389913](https://community.wolfram.com/groups/-/m/t/3389913)
I worked with two scientists (Jeffrey Bryant, Jose Martin-Garcia) to build final visualization with all computations explained at the link above.
There are two major complicating factors that make it difficult to predict the future location of small asteroids into the more distant future. The first is that their small size and dark surface makes it hard to observe them if they are not near Earth. This means its difficult to fit a precise orbit to the asteroid since there are only a handful of observations during a small narrow arc of the full orbit. The other major complicating factor is that these small bodies cross the orbits of other major bodies and are subject to a number of perturbations. As of early February of 2025, NASA is claiming a 2.3% chance that the asteroid will strike Earth on Dec 22, 2032. Time will tell, with further orbit refinements, if the chance of a collision will increase or decrease in the near future.
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There was interesting Comment by Nassim Taleb on NASA tweet on X:
NASA:
While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known.
NASSIM TALEB:
No. A “1% to 2.3% chance” is not an “extremely low possibility”. It may be for an individual but not for the collective. Depending on impact, if we had *significant* ones every few million years we would not be there.
Which way am I supposed to be rooting!
That sounds like a problem for 2032
Guess it’s time to pack it up and move somewhere else…
Anything we can do to up the odds a bit?
If I’m not mistaken, NASA also did determine that it would strike close to the equator, far away from many of the major population centers (US, Europe, Asia).
and it would only be a regional hazard, not a global hazard.
Would it hit on the flat part or on the edge?
I’d say about 2.3% chance of this happening. Correct me if I’m wrong.
So you’re saying there’s a chance…
Is this the simulation that we’re all in and trying to solve?
If it hits, those two astronauts that are *still stuck up there* will be the only two left alive.
Dang December 22, a bit too late to see if we all die before committing to buying Christmas gifts.
I can already imagine Trump launching a mission to divert the asteroid **TOWARD EARTH** during its 2028 flyby because Musk told him it’s full of precious metals.
‘Cause I’m leaving on a jet plane
Saved to calendar. After some thought, I set a 2 week notification…
How big of an asteroid are we talking? A small crash out in the middle of nowhere?
Just hit a gas pedal a bit, and we’ll miss it.
Near miss, would my eyebrows burn?
It is possible but I think it’s going to missed Earth.
Anyway to speed up that timeline? I’m on a schedule
Didnt they also say its prob gonna reach zero when they are able to see it again in 2028?
It’s like in Xcom. 97.7% never misses.. right
I’m almost betting on SpaceX getting a gazzilion dollars from the government to “do something” about it.
And Musk can finally say that he saved the world. 🙄
That’s AI’s problem and robots by that time. Il be going to the pub until this all blows over.
Bruh, Jupiter where are you man, thought you were looking out for us.
An actual asteroid could hit the Earth and everyone is joking about it.
Imagine you’re sitting out in a boat with big ass binoculars and the thing scoots past 4m above sea level leaving a massive wake but doesn’t actually splash.