Data from Prof Ray Wills, University of Western Australia.
Gasoline cars will still be on global roads in the 2030's, but by then they'll look out-dated and will be more expensive to run than EVs. Renewables keep getting cheaper and cheaper, meaning electricity – particularly the sort you make at home with solar panels – will be cheaper than gas. Not only that, the infrastructure that supports gas cars from automaker services, to local mechanics will be shrinking.
I suspect by the 2030s self-driving cars will be changing the concept of car ownership. For many people using them will be much cheaper than owning a car.
Data suggests the global sale of new combustion engine cars may halve by 2028 compared to 2024.
byu/lughnasadh inFuturology
8 Comments
If I had read this a year ago, I would have been encouraged.
However, now that we have an anti-science President (who might be influencing world event far longer than his current term), I’d say the likelihood of this happening is far less.
The writing’s on the wall for combustion engine cars. It’s not just about EVs being better for the environment—it’s about **economics and infrastructure**. Once gas stations start disappearing and maintenance costs rise, owning a gasoline car will feel like using a flip phone in a smartphone era.
Self-driving cars could take it even further—if robotaxis become widely available, a lot of people might ditch car ownership altogether. The real shift isn’t just **gas to electric**, it’s **ownership to access**. By 2035, owning a personal car might feel as unnecessary as owning a DVD player today.
Sorry, but that “data” is absurd. If global sales of ICEs actually dropped in half in the next 3 years, it would be an economic calamity, and one of the most astonishing economic events in modern times.
Even if global sales decrease by half, you should keep in mind that there are a lot of legacy ICE cars on the market. The average car can run for 10-15 years or so, thus they will remain an active presence for the next 10-25 years.
Is there some way we can do this without supporting a Nazi takeover of the government?
if only they would let us buy the $7-10k chinese electric cars in the US. apparently the powers that be have decided that a new car is not allowed to cost any less than 25k
Feels good that my predictions are getting backed up by experts.
‘Well I am telling you, not happening in cowboy Merica! Brody, step on that throttle, yeeeeehaw!’