Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest Bluesky Threads In celebration of 2024 YR4 probably not hitting Earth, here’s a chart of its estimated Nominal Distance from Earth with uncertainty ranges over time. https://i.redd.it/0zwepba6uxke1.png
ArtOfWarfare on February 23, 2025 7:25 pm Could still hit the moon and knock it into a collision course with Earth which would be much worse. (I think I’m kidding. There’s no way it can meaningfully alter the moon’s orbit. Right?)
BlakeBoS on February 23, 2025 7:52 pm I mean..c’mon now, I can’t be the only one who kinda, little bit, wishes it would hit us right?
physicalphysics314 on February 23, 2025 8:23 pm Holy moly this was such a bad way to depict this data. A scatter plot on one axis, and a twinned histogram on the other
mtnviewguy on February 23, 2025 8:28 pm If you want to know of it impacts, do what we do in the mountains when the weather channels try to predict snow! I Witness Weather becomes I Witness Impact! 👍🤪🤣
OroCardinalis on February 23, 2025 8:46 pm Can we start a graph of likelihood of it hitting the Moon?
HungryKing9461 on February 23, 2025 8:50 pm But… It was always “probably not going to hit the earth”…
SuperRiveting on February 24, 2025 2:11 am Sigh, Maybe next time eh? How many more characters do I need?
WazWaz on February 24, 2025 5:14 am Interestingly, if you just bundle all the earlier “sub prime” probabilities into the one average data point, you get close to the current data point.
10 Comments
Could still hit the moon and knock it into a collision course with Earth which would be much worse.
(I think I’m kidding. There’s no way it can meaningfully alter the moon’s orbit. Right?)
I mean..c’mon now, I can’t be the only one who kinda, little bit, wishes it would hit us right?
Holy moly this was such a bad way to depict this data. A scatter plot on one axis, and a twinned histogram on the other
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If you want to know of it impacts, do what we do in the mountains when the weather channels try to predict snow!
I Witness Weather becomes I Witness Impact! 👍🤪🤣
Can we start a graph of likelihood of it hitting the Moon?
But… It was always “probably not going to hit the earth”…
Damn, now I need to get rid of my “YR4 4 Prez” signs.
Sigh, Maybe next time eh?
How many more characters do I need?
Interestingly, if you just bundle all the earlier “sub prime” probabilities into the one average data point, you get close to the current data point.