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    NCAA Basketball Comeback Probability [OC]
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    NCAA Basketball Comeback Probability [OC]

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    11 Comments

    1. NPCKing on

      Is the x-axis supposed to start at 0? The hotspot at the top left seems cool but now it confuses me.

    2. curt_schilli on

      I’m confused. Is this saying that the team trailing by 1 in the first minute of the second half has a 90% chance to win? That doesn’t seem right

    3. highlyeducated_idiot on

      This makes March seem a lot less mad… great analysis!

      Could you share the code you used to make this? I’d like to learn how to do similar work.

    4. SimEngineer272 on

      dont use a continuous color palette. itd better to have discrete colors for each probability.

    6. -BeefSupreme on

      Teams down by 1 with 6 minutes left win ~25% of the time? That’s definitely not right 

    8. jchall3 on

      I think “win probably” should probably be interpreted as “added win probability” or to be a normalized 50% Win vs Loss at the beginning of the game. Or another way to say it is your win probability based solely on score and not ability.

    9. ToineMP on

      That doesn’t make any sense. There shouldn’t be anything above 50% in a point deficit. Otherwise this means you’re better off losing at the beginning

    10. thebusterbluth on

      My HS friends and I all had older sisters who played basketball growing up. We used to try to determine the “point of insurmountability” for a HS girls basketball game. We determined that it was like 13 points.

    11. WanderingFlumph on

      If I’m reading this right you are almost guaranteed to win if you are behind by 1 point when the second half starts.

      Its a bold strategy cotton, let’s see if it pays off for them.