A former US ambassador to NATO is warning that the Trump administration is posing the alliance’s greatest crisis, describing it as “existential.” Ivo Daalder, who held the position between 2009 and 2013 when Barack Obama was in US office, said Donald Trump’s suggestions that he would refuse to defend another NATO nation “go to the core” of what the organisation stands for.
Mr Daalder told the Daily Express that he believes that allied faith in the US has “shattered” and that it is “very possible” that Mr Trump could quit the alliance. He said: “I don’t think there is any significant, deep value that President Trump attaches to NATO; he has attacked NATO since the late 1980s. There’s nothing particularly surprising about it and he has demonstrated that he doesn’t really believe in the rules-based international order. In fact, he doesn’t believe in the internal rules-based order.
“He believes in his own interests and using power to pursue those interests, and if NATO gets in the way, he will just walk away.
“But the point is not will the US withdraw, the point is will allies still believe that the US is a credible partner and that belief is already shattered.”
The Trump administration has regularly criticised Europe, challenging the continent to step up and spend considerably more on defence.
Mr Trump last month cast doubt over US commitment to NATO’s Article 5 – an attack on one is an attack on all – after saying he would not defend those not paying enough for their own defence.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has said Washington is no longer “primarily focused” on European security and a reported leak of a secret Pentagon memo revealed the United States would be unlikely to come to the aid of Europe if Russia attacked.
In February, the US went against its allies and joined Russia in voting against a UN resolution condemning Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
“It’s never happened before,” Mr Daalder said. “It’s also the first time that a President of the United States has said, ‘I’m not going to defend you, not because I disagree with the threat, but I’m not going to do it because you’re not ‘doing enough’ for defence’.
“It is fundamental, it is existential, because it goes to the core of what the alliance means – and it’s being perpetuated by the ally long-thought of as the sort of core pinnacle of the alliance.”
He added: “It [Article 5] definitely exists. The question is will it be invoked if the circumstances arise and if it is invoked, will everybody come to the defence of the country that is being attacked?
“Those have always been political decisions, and we’ve just always assumed the answer to both questions was yes. That’s no longer the case.”
Mr Daalder is warning without Washington, the organisation – but crucially not the alliance – “collapses”.
He believes a “Europeanised NATO” can survive without the US, but it would require time, money and American cooperation.
“The transition only works if the US gradually withdraws its capabilities as Europeans increase theirs,” Mr Daalder explained.
He warns if the US was to “pull the rug out tomorrow” then Europe will be vulnerable for between five and 10 years.
Mr Daalder, who is now CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs think tank, says for European countries to be able to effectively defend themselves, defence spending levels need to increase to 3.5% of GDP.
The UK Government has pledged to boost spending to 2.5% of GDP by April 2027, with several critics claiming this isn’t enough in the current climate.
The former ambassador believes the UK could play a crucial role in making the alliance more European-led while also keeping the US on the side.