Ray Dalio says tariffs have an important consequence: They can prepare the US for a great conflict or war
https://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-tariffs-prepare-us-great-clash-peer-war-consequence-2025-4?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=insider-futurology-sub-post
33 Comments
**TLDR:**
* **Tariffs can help the US prepare for conflict since they can lower foreign reliance, Ray Dalio said.**
* **Dalio wrote on Wednesday that such taxes are “necessary” in times of an international power struggle. He wrote that tariffs make local companies less efficient, because global supply chains are stifled, but more survivable as long as domestic consumers can still buy enough of their goods.**
* **The billionaire’s point about an “international great power conflict” aligns with his regular warnings that the world is moving toward a period of great strife and a** [**high risk of war**](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-forgot-how-to-fight-real-war-veteran-in-ukraine-2024-5)**.**
Billionaire asked normal people to sacrifice and suffer for his benefit.
Sounds like post hoc rationalizations for really bad policies.
🤔So if billionaires are all about self-reliance, what are they gonna do with alll that money?
What a moron, the only reason you will have to prepare for a struggle is because the tariffs are going to throw you into one. Only a child thinks in such simple terms that action A results in a simple result B with no regard to second or third order effects from something as arbitrary, wide ranging, and indiscriminate as GLOBALLY IMPOSED TARIFFS and then calling it LiBeRaTiOn DaY.
With the United States abandoning it’s post COVID Biden era economic resurgence the Chinese are just going to shoot up ahead forging more of the same relationships that have it owning more and more parts of Africa. Trump is an idiot and at this point either an agent for Russia or China because he isn’t helping Americans.
Could it be a war against billionaires so the rest of the people just can live in peace?
Perhaps the US government could, I dunno, try to avoid that?
But how does that argument work when considering that we are the ones instigating most conflicts that impact the world broadly? He’s trying to frame it as being prepared to react when in reality we are the proactive party in most cases. THAT framing just looks like a further sharpening of a blade that’s already plenty sharp already.
It seems more likely to tank the financial system requiring different areas to generate new digitial currency systems?
Then we should be making luigi a commander in the military.
Smart stuff here. The two things that help you prepare for war:
1.) Piss off all your allies and friends
2.) Bankrupt your middle class and geriatric population right before the war. This way, the out of shape office workers and old geisers will WANT to fight in the front lines to feed their families!
But other countries can just shut off trade and turn off that income, which is why I find it so crazy that Republicans seem to want to move to funding the government exclusively through tariffs. We would be dependent on cooperative global trade to fund the country.
“You know, getting this cancer can really prepare you to deal with grief and loss” – said no oncologist ever.
Dalio’s perspective on tariffs and economic resilience could contribute to a self-fulfilling prophecy, depending on how policymakers and markets react. If enough decision-makers adopt his view that conflict with a major power like China is inevitable, they might implement protective measures (such as tariffs and economic decoupling), which could, in turn, escalate tensions and make conflict more likely.
Similarly, if businesses and investors act on the belief that the U.S. debt crisis is approaching a breaking point, their decisions, such as pulling capital out of U.S. markets or shifting to alternative assets, could accelerate the very crisis Dalio warns about.
In this way, his predictions may not just be observations but also catalysts that shape reality, reinforcing the outcomes he foresees.
I thought Dalio was brighter than MAGA.
I obviously thought wrong.
I am not following. He seems to think that tariffs are going to help with the supply chains. However, the supply chains that the US spent decades to establish with its allies will be disrupted. And there is no guarantee that they will always be replaced with “stronger” chains once they disappear, especially for critical components.
How is isolating the country going to help in a time of war? The US did not win a single victory without a network of allies.
Globally intertwined, free-trading world is the best antidote to wars.
To be polite, there are more elegant solutions, tariff’s are hamfisted and disruptive not to mention divisive. Why would you intentionally insult your most loyal allies. The claim that we are being treated badly by our trade partners is a lie, the examples given innaccurate at best.
Dalio is a very smart guy. He should be listened to. One interesting benefit so far is falling treasury rates. Could be helpful for all of the debt we need to refi this year if trend continues.
Purposely causing your own fellow citizens to suffer economically would seem to be advocating for a more gentlemanly form of warfare. One might even say civil.
The whole point of the massive globalization and integration of the world economies since the end of WW2 and the Cold War has been to prevent any major powers from going to war. You can say it’s to make goods cheaper, expand capital, spread propaganda, whatever- the real reason was that there was a belief that if two countries are fundamentally economically enmeshed, they could not go to war with each other. So far, it worked and the world has been better for it.
The carelessness with which people speak about another Great War, almost relishing it… well, honestly it sounds like the Italian Futurists before WW1. That movement did not survive the war.
Who’s going to invest in new factories knowing that the next administration could remove the tariffs?
Lol, the man is looking for a silver lining in a turd
This is stupid logic because it ignores the fact that economic interdependence prevents war because it means loss of standard of living. After WW 2 we have achieved a relatively high degree of peace in large part because of economic interdependence. Not only that but cultural exchange international alliances come with increased trade.
Tariffs are always useful when used strategically and in association with manufacturing incentives focused on specific areas. The Trump administration isn’t capable of this type of strategic planning.
The operative phrase is, ” they can prepare the US for a greater conflict or war.” I’ll sleep better now knowing that I’m prepared.
Dalio is a charlatan. There will be no war. Why would there be a war? Who would be fighting? China wins by doing absolutely nothing.
This guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about. We will never see a war-time economy like we had during WW2. Instead, the US and its allies would combine their industrial, scientific and economic efforts to counteract and overwhelm any adversary. No one country would be able to stop an effort that spans multiple countries around the world. All these dummies are doing is isolating us, so it’s easier to win in a war where the Western world is heavily divided and can be picked off separately.
If Trump can’t maneuver a way to run for a third term, WAR is his backup plan! (So he can use the pretext to suspend 2028 elections.). And, sadly, it really wouldn’t be that hard to contrive a large conflict. Just announce to the world that the U.S. is no longer adhering to the “One China Policy”, and recognize Taiwan as it’s own nation. Wouldn’t take the Chinese long to raise a stink, engineer an international incident, and then it’s on!
You know what foreign economic reliance does? Prevent war.
So weakening our economy for years ahead of time can help prepare for wartime when we will have lots of other headwinds? Gotcha!
It’s a flat tax, not income proportional so it will likely cost poor people more money.
Donald Trump is levelling the playing field with China and Europe, by intentionally imploding the US economy whose post-COVID recovery was built up by Joe Biden, while he is giving China and Europe the blueprint to economically surpass the US in 5-10 years time.
These fucking idiot billionaires and their insane rationalizations.
America is already the most overprepared-for-war nation in history.
Meanwhile, shooting your legs off prepares you for life as an invalid, not as a warrior.