When armed police prevented the arrest of Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik on April 23, it marked the latest escalation in a growing crisis afflicting Bosnia, one that some warn could be an existential test for the fragile country.
How could police themselves prevent an arrest? The answer lies in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s notoriously complicated governing system. The security forces trying to arrest Dodik were from the central state police, SIPA, while those protecting him were from the Republika Srpska, or RS, one of two highly autonomous “entities” created by the 1995 Dayton Agreement that brought the country’s bloody four-year war to a close. The RS is a Serb-dominated region of which Dodik serves as president. The other entity, confusingly named the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, is dominated by ethnic Bosniaks and Croats.
Despite its complexity and deep flaws, the Dayton system, with subsequent amendments, has persisted for three decades. Arguably, it has preserved peace at the price of functionality. Now Dodik, who has frequently suggested that the RS should secede from Bosnia, threatens to tear even this system to the ground, with potentially drastic consequences. The attempt to arrest him was the latest escalation in an ongoing struggle between Dodik on one hand and state institutions and the representative of the international community on the other.