Chance US presidential candidates win their parties’ nomination if they choose to run in 2028, according to betting markets [OC]
Posted by pokeuser61
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Chance US presidential candidates win their parties’ nomination if they choose to run in 2028, according to betting markets [OC]
Posted by pokeuser61
22 Comments
Weird tump has such a high chance considering he cannot run a 3rd time.
Sources: [a](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner) [b](https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2028drun/2028-d-running) [c](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomr/republican-primary-winner) [d](https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2028rrun/2028-r-running)
Tools: matplotlib + conditional probability
Two of the top three republicans are not eligible to be elected president in 2028.
Stephen A Smith at 20%?
I don’t want to live on this planet anymore
steven A smith is a plant
Top 4 democrats are a hard no for me.
Edit – and that bitch Fetterman in the top 10?? Naaah
Crazy to me that Michelle Obama is on top of the blue chart. I see her name thrown around a lot by conservatives, but I. Reality I don’t know a single person who even associates her with politics anymore. AOC is about the only candidate anyone in my social circles like, though, presidential elections are a long way off and we aren’t talking about potential candidates much
Elon Musk can’t be elected, he is not a native citizen
according to betting markets? is that really the best source we could find?
There is just absolutely no way this information is accurate. Hillary Clinton has a 33% of winning a Democratic primary after two failed runs? Ain’t no way.
This is simple: Trump CANNOT run for a 3rd term.
This is ridiculous. Trump is disqualified per THE CONSTITUTION. Shouldn’t even be part of this nonsense
I got a chuckle out of Jon Stewart right next to Pete Buttigieg.
Very funny list for many reasons.
Clinton, Harris and Stephen A smith in top 4 HAHAHA
No Bernie Sanders? Even if his chance is vanishingly low he should have been included here as he is particularly notable among progressives.
It really bothers me that there are more celebrities in this hypothetical Democratic primary than the Republican one. We’re really cooked.
Joe Biden 2028 baby let it ride
This is a perfect example of how betting markets just don’t work for this type of thing. There is a 0% chance Clinton is winning this election as a clear example. I’m highly dubious if Trump manages to run again that he would win either and Vance simply can’t be the 2nd best option for republicans, nobody likes him.
Hmm there’s a lot of things I take issue with here, but on the other hand Bernie Sanders isn’t even on the chart, so it seems pretty legit
64% of republicans would choose to illegally run Trump for a third term. Democracy is dead.
I’m going to say this unpopular opinion, but…
America is not ready for a woman president, and doubly so for a black woman president. While democrats *think* America is ready, we have seen firsthand, that any attempt to pidgeonhole a candidate in the front-running simply because of what’s in their pants will end in an embarrassing loss.
Also, Elon Musk can’t run for president. And Donald Trump can’t run for president. The fact that these betting markets have their names in the list means this country is toast.