For electricity grids, solar gets more expensive the more of it you use. The higher the percentage of solar in the mix, the more you need to over-build and use batteries to account for the least sunny parts of the year – January in the Northern Hemisphere.
But rapidly declining prices for batteries and solar panels are changing that. If built, at the lowest prices currently available in China, the US could now supply 80% of its electricity from solar+batteries cost-competitively with gas.
If prices continue to fall, using existing gas turbines as backup, the day is coming when the US may be able to supply 90-95% of electricity needs from just solar.
The political winds may be against this at the moment, but the economic truths will win out in the end.
The falling cost of solar panels and batteries means the US could now meet 80% of its electricity needs from just solar power alone, for the same price it pays for gas-turbine-generated electricity.
byu/lughnasadh inFuturology
28 Comments
Yes solar is cheaper. The more countries understand this reality the less they need fuel.
Well at least during the day. On clear days. In the proper latitudes. As long as there are compatible substations and other infrastructure. Oh, and battery banks close by to store excess capacity. Along with all the necessary buildings, cooling systems, HVAC and other ancillary bits and pieces.
The real rub is that solar farms do work, but there is a lot of NIMBY, zoning that favors either ag or residential, HOA issues, insurance company issues (roof penetration? You get a leak, no insurance coverage), wind load calculations and more and more ad nauseum.
Believe me. I did PV installs for several years here in Florida, and the legislature changed the law in 2018 to make it almost impossible to go off-grid. You are regulated like any other power producer, subject to market conditions. Large power companies can afford these kinds of ongoing capital expenses.
The cost of full off-grid between 2016 and today has dropped for the hardware. I can get a 20kW solar installation for about the same cost as then, and also include the batteries. But the permitting is problematic.
And the big brainless bill just cut all the solar investment and production tax credits for new solar projects, the benefits of which largely passed directly to consumers. There is no way fossil fuel can keep up with energy demand and trying to cut down on new production of renewable energy in our country will just make us more dependent on foreign energy and make our costs soar.
Why would installers take less for installations? They would just pocket the savings, likewise most of the cost is beyond the panels themselves.
Not with 1400% tariffs on solar panels, or whatever ludicrous amount it is.
Chemical batteries also have the drawback that they often contain lots of toxic and/or rare materials to function though. A better means of grid storage is an energy vault [like this one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Vault) that uses electricity to raise a heavy block in the air (storing it as potential energy), then can get the energy back when needed by lowering the block in a way that drives an electric motor, converting that potential energy back to electricity.
I vote YES. But im not sure the current infrastructure could handle that sudden increase in load overnight.
Source: I do IT for an energy company and regularly hear the engineers mention that.
Well, if we can get it into homes rather than overly centralized, we can greatly reduce mass outage impacts and have a more resilient society.
“If built, at the lowest prices currently available in China…” China? That would be un-American! It’s coal all the way!
The crazy thing is the US has so much land mass. Heck we could just cover paved parking lots in the panels, your cars would stay cooler while getting free electricity.
I truly believe that oil and other energy companies have sucked up patents or paid other off to keep a reliance on fuel. I remember in the 1990’s going to EPCOT and GM having electric cars on display even had a simulator to show how much faster they could accelerate. Then some 10+ years later we get the Prius.
For the US the question is, when will American made solar panels become affordable? It seems we are trying to be less reliant on China who makes a majority of panels and the reason the price has gone down for the most part.
There was a case recently of some solar panels found with some kind of kill switch. I doubt the US and other countries would want to risk their energy infrastructure to that kind of threat.
*Fossil Fuels has entered the chat* Thanks for letting us know! We’ll be lobbying to ensure solar won’t overtake us. Thank you for your service.
But think of the poor oil barons who won’t be able to afford their 5th mansion!
The issue is the fossil fuel companies already invested hundreds of millions of dollars with the backing of large financial institutions on new drills that would only start to be profitable within 20 years. Both the fossil fuel companies and finance capital have the financial and political capital to defend their investment for an infinite amount of time. Feasibility of renewables has been a secondary issue for a long time.
Should be a law where all new builds have to have solar panels
i went out into the county to buy some raised garden beds recently… lots of people with “stop industrial solar” and “say no to wind farm” signs out there… made me kinda sad, really… like yeah, it’s more expensive to start… but after it gets going, it’s (almost) FREE
Damn. Someone get Trump and the Republicans on the phone. They’re not going to believe this.
Is who is manufacturing these solar panels included in the final cost?
Some cities don’t even let you use solar panels freely and have a bunch of restrictions to keep you using the traditional power grid
Someone post a link to some affordable batteries for off grid living, then I’ll believe you.
If only we didn’t have a gigantic shortage of qualified installers to offset the decreasing cost of the equipment. I’m not sure what the tariffs (should they be upheld by the SCJ) will do to that cost in the future, either.
Parents, please send your children to trade school 😅
I love solar and wish it were even less expensive. Outfitting a large home is still out of reach for many Americans. My state used to have an insanely good solar loan program, which would essentially make a homeowner break even in the first year or two. Shame that they hit their solar energy production target too soon.
As I always like to say, nuclear could meet 100% of our power needs
“The same price” and “cost-competitively” are not synonyms.
I shouldn’t even have to comment on how you can only even pretend this works if you buy the cheapest possible product from China.
This has been the case for a long while. I wonder why it hasn’t caught on. Hmmmmm?
I’ve spent nearly 10 years into solar energy project only to realise solar energy can’t be a primary energy resource. There are more things at play than just superficial numbers.
Unfortunately it can’t provide base-level power like steam and gas generators can. This is the realm of dams and fission/fusion. Solar and wind are better suited for surge power needs.
Driving around IAH- Houston airport… there are a shit ton of car-park roofs that could be generating incredible amounts of electricity… acres of them..
Can solar cope with the increased demand that A.I. data centers require?
I expect that it can, but maybe there’s a reason it would struggle.