Note: Wage data covers non-farm wage and salary workers and do not cover the self-employed, owners and partners in unincorporated firms, or household workers.
USAFacts on
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects total employment to climb by about 6.7 million jobs between 2023 and 2033. Home health aides, software developers, and restaurant cooks are set to gain the most total jobs. We have [a report](https://usafacts.org/articles/what-are-the-fastest-growing-professions-in-america/) that digs into that data, but I found myself interested in the other side of things.
The BLS also projects job loss. I [posted a while back](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1glvmac/projected_fastest_declining_jobs_in_the_us_oc/) on the occupations projected to shrink the most on a percentage basis, but some of the niche occupations on that list (like typists and switchboard operators) felt a little old-timey. So here’s a similar list of projected *total* job loss by occupation. Note that annual wages for all of the occupations on this list range from around $30,000 to just under $100,000.
* Cashiers top the list, with a projected drop of roughly 353,000 positions (11% of total cashier jobs)
* Customer service representatives are projected to lose 148,800 jobs (5%)
* Office clerks are projected to lose 147,500 jobs (6%)
* Fast-food cooks are projected to lose 93,700 jobs (14%). Interestingly, *restaurant* cooks are on the BLS’ list of occupations projected to gain the most jobs (244,500).
* Supervisors of retail sales workers are projected to lose 90,500 jobs (6%)
Some of the steeper percentage declines on this list:
* Word processors and typists are projected for a 38% contraction
* Data entry keyers are projected to lose 25% of jobs
* Telemarketers are projected to lose 22% of jobs
A note on the distinction between an “occupation” and a “job”: An occupation is the broad type of work a person performs, while a job is the specific role someone holds. It’s specific to each person at a point in time, based on their skills and experience. A pediatrician’s occupation would be “doctor,” and their job would be “pediatrician.”
Apprehensive_Mode686 on
So… software developers are set to gain jobs and computer programmers are set to lose. Interesting lol
DrShadowstrike on
I’m amazed that there are *any* word processors or typists left to lose jobs at all.
der_innkeeper on
I guess its good to be an engineer.
flagellat-ey on
Is this taking taco tariffs into account?
skoltroll on
Bookkeeping & accounting in top 5 projected job losses?
That’s hilarious.
Ilinden1 on
Where is taxi and truck drivers?
ownage516 on
So what happens when the majority of the population doesn’t work and can’t find a job?
ibeerianhamhock on
It’s puzzling to me that truck drivers and other easily automated jobs aren’t on that list. I mean we will surely have the technology to drastically reduce staffing in shipping by 2033, it’s really just a political thing at this point.
Dynablade_Savior on
I work at a grocery store right now and our cashiers also pull doing security and customer service, getting rid of them would send the store crashing down, even though we have mostly self checkout
Keto_is_neat_o on
The jobs most impacted by raising the minimum wage above the value of the task are the ones losing the highest numbers. And nobody is surprised.
very_random_user on
This is way too optimistic. AI is going to take way more jobs away, for instance among computer programmers. I already know people that do programming without any expertise…so hired differently and way cheaper.
Badmoto on
Why cooks? That doesn’t seem intuitive.
NathanArizona on
10% of computer programmers is horribly underestimated
Abacus_Mathematics99 on
I was called a doomer because I’d say this would happen.
![[OC] Projected job loss in the US](https://www.byteseu.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/r3ketveohq4f1-1536x968.png "[OC] Projected job loss in the US")
16 Comments
Source: [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/occupations-largest-job-declines.htm)
Tools: Datawrapper, Illustrator
Note: Wage data covers non-farm wage and salary workers and do not cover the self-employed, owners and partners in unincorporated firms, or household workers.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects total employment to climb by about 6.7 million jobs between 2023 and 2033. Home health aides, software developers, and restaurant cooks are set to gain the most total jobs. We have [a report](https://usafacts.org/articles/what-are-the-fastest-growing-professions-in-america/) that digs into that data, but I found myself interested in the other side of things.
The BLS also projects job loss. I [posted a while back](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1glvmac/projected_fastest_declining_jobs_in_the_us_oc/) on the occupations projected to shrink the most on a percentage basis, but some of the niche occupations on that list (like typists and switchboard operators) felt a little old-timey. So here’s a similar list of projected *total* job loss by occupation. Note that annual wages for all of the occupations on this list range from around $30,000 to just under $100,000.
* Cashiers top the list, with a projected drop of roughly 353,000 positions (11% of total cashier jobs)
* Customer service representatives are projected to lose 148,800 jobs (5%)
* Office clerks are projected to lose 147,500 jobs (6%)
* Fast-food cooks are projected to lose 93,700 jobs (14%). Interestingly, *restaurant* cooks are on the BLS’ list of occupations projected to gain the most jobs (244,500).
* Supervisors of retail sales workers are projected to lose 90,500 jobs (6%)
Some of the steeper percentage declines on this list:
* Word processors and typists are projected for a 38% contraction
* Data entry keyers are projected to lose 25% of jobs
* Telemarketers are projected to lose 22% of jobs
A note on the distinction between an “occupation” and a “job”: An occupation is the broad type of work a person performs, while a job is the specific role someone holds. It’s specific to each person at a point in time, based on their skills and experience. A pediatrician’s occupation would be “doctor,” and their job would be “pediatrician.”
So… software developers are set to gain jobs and computer programmers are set to lose. Interesting lol
I’m amazed that there are *any* word processors or typists left to lose jobs at all.
I guess its good to be an engineer.
Is this taking taco tariffs into account?
Bookkeeping & accounting in top 5 projected job losses?
That’s hilarious.
Where is taxi and truck drivers?
So what happens when the majority of the population doesn’t work and can’t find a job?
It’s puzzling to me that truck drivers and other easily automated jobs aren’t on that list. I mean we will surely have the technology to drastically reduce staffing in shipping by 2033, it’s really just a political thing at this point.
I work at a grocery store right now and our cashiers also pull doing security and customer service, getting rid of them would send the store crashing down, even though we have mostly self checkout
The jobs most impacted by raising the minimum wage above the value of the task are the ones losing the highest numbers. And nobody is surprised.
This is way too optimistic. AI is going to take way more jobs away, for instance among computer programmers. I already know people that do programming without any expertise…so hired differently and way cheaper.
Why cooks? That doesn’t seem intuitive.
10% of computer programmers is horribly underestimated
I was called a doomer because I’d say this would happen.