U.S. Deaths Will Exceed Births Sooner | The White House’s immigration policies are threatening future population levels.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/us-deaths-will-exceed-births-sooner-thanks-to-donald-trump/
U.S. Deaths Will Exceed Births Sooner | The White House’s immigration policies are threatening future population levels.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/us-deaths-will-exceed-births-sooner-thanks-to-donald-trump/
36 Comments
From the article: The nation’s population is expected to be smaller and grow more slowly over the next three decades due to the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration. A Congressional Budget Office report states that the U.S. population will reach 367 million by 2055, a reduction of 5 million from earlier forecasts.
Deaths are also expected to outpace births by 2031, two years earlier than anticipated, creating a paradox where fewer migrant families will be present to have children, leading to a population decline that can only be countered by allowing more immigrants into the country to counterbalance it.
Fertility rates have also declined more than expected, according to a report from the CDC. The CBO estimates that around 290,000 immigrants will be forcibly removed from the country between 2026-2029, with a further 30,000 “voluntarily” deporting themselves.
This results in a labor force with fewer working-age adults, which could stifle economic expansion. While the CBO still projects positive net immigration for 2025, it cautions that its forecasts are highly sensitive to policy changes. A detailed economic forecast, based on the new projections, is expected to be released on Friday.
This is why the Heritage Foundation is pushing the Manhattan Project for babies. Implicit meaning “white babies”.
This is not surprising. The United States, like other countries, has had lots of demographic momentum; the baby boom was big and the US had a high rate of sub replacement fertility and relatively low mortality for a long time. The contrast with a Germany that began experiencing natural decrease in the early 1970s is noteworthy.
A population policy that is at once hostile to immigrants, does nothing to deal with rising rates of premature mortality, and does not enable family formation is of course going to waste this momentum.
Who would have kids in this country? All safety nets are being eliminated. It’s already difficult to buy a home or even move out of your folks place. Funding for education is dropping everywhere. Women’s rights are eroding more and more.
I suggested in another sub that this issue had just as much to do with recent abortion bans than religious or misogynist intent and got downvoted to hell.
“we hate everyone that isnt a white-‘Christian’.” also them… why does no one want to live here anymore, where are all the tourists, why is my employer closing down, how do I find food.
I was expecting a 4-year dumpster fire, with random pops and explosions within that metaphorical dumpster fire, all of which should be mostly ignored.
Man-oh-man, are we exceeding expectations for diversity of awfulness and irreversibility of consequences.
Only 3.25 years remaining, optimistically presuming an election & regime change.
Why else do you think they are pushng women to have children and taking away their right to choose? Because the only other option is to cover the people gap with immigrants.
I find it CRAZY people think this is a bad thing – global population has more than DOUBLED since I was a kid – due to automation/tech we’ve never needed so few people on the pla
this is a very good thing.
There are too many people on the planet anyways. It would be good for the human race to stop reproducing for a couple generations to give the planet a break.
its ok
infinite growth is not worth the trouble, look at what’s happening to EU
as technology gets better, there will be less people
Fewer people is automatically bad?
Was this written and posted by Elon Musk? Why are we automatically buying into that premise?
So… the replacement theory? That doesn’t feel like a sustainable way to keep a healthy country.
A far better approach is to have free childcare, healthcare (at the very least for pregnancies), long parental leave, huge tax breaks and incentives for having kids.
If the world falls into birth stagnation we are going to end up cloning people, I promise you that, and it will be ugly.
Big four nations that emigrate to the United States
Mexico, China, India, Philippines.
Birth rates within those nations.
Mexico – 1.9, China – 1.0, India – 1.9, Philippines – 1.9
All four are below replacement themselves so within the next generation the tug of war over people will likely shift as nations don’t want a drain of workers/consumers.
Oh no, the population is declining.
Who will buy property? I guess we’ll just have to lower real estate prices. What a nightmare.
Who will pollute the oceans and create landfills? I guess we’ll just have to watch pollution decrease. What a nightmare.
Who will work unskilled jobs if there aren’t enough people to do them? I guess we’ll have to increase wages. What a nightmare.
With a smaller population comes more tightly knit communities. Who will commit crimes to populate our prisons? What a nightmare.
Cheaper real estate, less pollution, higher wages, less crime. How will we survive? Won’t someone think of the shareholders?
Unpopular opinion, but the world is overpopulated as it is.
Isn’t that a good thing? Being Serious here.
They have been saying that we are over populating the world, isn’t balancing that out good?
I refuse to offer up future wage-slaves for our soon-to-be trillionaire class. Although this choice is now intentional on my part, a series of events over the last 20-some years really made it financially unfeasible for me to have children and now, I’m grateful I don’t.
Demographics is destiny. China had the boneheaded one child policy, America has an alt-right, isolationist buffoon as POTUS. Both results are the same, stagnating population. The meek shall inherit the Earth; fertility rates and population growth in Africa is still robust.
The problem is that in a lot of western society there is a cult of nihilism. A glorification of guns and aggressive war like masculinity, and a denegration of women. A profound lack of empathy, in fact empathy is looked upon as best a weakness and at worse an evil to be rooted out. A rejection of Enlightenment values. An increasing trend towards Christian Theocratic Fascism. An exploitive Late Stage Capitalism tending towards Oligarchism and obsessive extraction of wealth from ordinary people to the ultra-wealthy. None of these things promote a healthy society that encourages people to start families.
Wasn’t this inevitably going to happen with the baby boomer generation all being born within a 15 year span? There was a huge spike in births from the early 40s to about 1960.
So…. they’re literally saying the great replacement out loud? Lol People can’t afford to have kids (and the propaganda has been telling them not to for a solid decade) so let’s import 3rd world people who are comfortable living in slums, expecting less, and still reproducing.
We need to make it significantly more affordable for American couples to raise larger families. It’s so unaffordable, that’s why a lot of people are not having more than 1 child.
I’m not anti immigration but flooding the country with poor immigrants who pop out 4-5 kids while needing massive assistance from the American taxpayer is not the solution..
People are assets. Yes, even the poor, the tired and the huddled masses. Population growth has coincided with economic growth and progress for a reason. Rejecting these assets is as silly as rejecting a bunch of free resources. Anti-immigration policies make us all poorer short and long run.
I’m certain that I will collect an epic number of downvotes, but the reality of the situation is that it’s the law, it has nothing to do with the current, or past, administrations. The system has been broken for a long time and no one wants to fix it. We need new lawmakers that are willing to buck the system and make the changes we need.
I’ve been saying for months that conservatives should be THANKING immigrants for pouring into the country.
US citizens aren’t having enough kids to replace ourselves. South Korea is currently having a very bad time because they have more elderly than workers, and frankly SK is probably doomed as a country at this point because soon they won’t be able to run their own economy.
Immigration is propping up the US workforce. We need them. Badly.
Headlines are dumb. It has to be immigration huh? No chance that native US citizens are just having less kids? Or that infertility is on the rise?
Yo greedy assholes, stop being stingy with wages and jobs, stop buying up housing, and people will have more kids
Okay can we stop with immigration?
This economy of late stage capitalism is a pressure cooker that destroys citizens, so now the greedy bastards want to chuck other populations at it to keep their magic GDP numbers. Fuck that, I say no immigration, these bastards have to lower prices and make living/breeding possible
Name one problem that having less people would not solve, outside of pension funding.
We don’t have a birth rate problem. We have a debt problem, and the former is seen as a kludgy way to fix the latter.
No, we are not doing this whole bullshit that Britain the eu and every nation is literally fighting against.
you do not need to import immigrants from third world countries because your birth rates are falling. This is bullshit it is not a money or safety issue either.
The poorest African nations have the most children, yet the richest American and European countries are dying off?
It’s not the economics it’s the fucking culture of anti children and anti family rhetoric that has taken over first world countries.
The work culture of both parents being away from their children and out of their lives most of the week while both parents work is awful!
We need less work for more money so parents have time to spend with their family’s and children.
we need a culture shift from children being seen as a burden to avoid rather than a blessing!
We need to end this corporate push for endless growth and say enough success is enough!
We need to end this thought process of “I’ll just pay for someone to look after me in my old age.”
We need to stop pushing our kids to be taken care of by daycares and schools! Parents need to have the final say over their children, not the government!
We need to stop trying to pedal these bandaid fixes of immigration to fix these clear cultural problems…
Normally I’d say ‘good, this is what we deserve’ but I’m very worried they’ll start forcing things soon. Not incentivizing having kids, which is it’s own problem and I disagree with it (plus it is that socialism they love to cry about) but I’m truly worried those without kids who are of age will be punished for it.
Yeah, no “white” people that aren’t from South Africa want to immigrate to the United States and give up their free healthcare, free education, lack of mass murders, school shootings, the list goes on.
It was already on track. Immigration does nothing but pump up the birth year age population artificially. Statistically, the fecundity bump from immigrants is now inverted, so no amount of immigration will reverse population decline at this point, it just kicks the can down the road until incomes become high enough in origin countries that they stop immigrating, then it drops right off a cliff. It has already slowed naturally from all but places that people are actively fleeing. When it completely crashes, the US will find out quickly that it’s the shakiest way to prop up your system.
The most important thing that people can do combat climate change is to stop having children.
This good for labor, less supply, more demand, hopefully means higher wages.