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    [OC] U.S. Serial-Killer Wave vs. Demographic Pass-Through by Generation (1950–2015)
    Data

    [OC] U.S. Serial-Killer Wave vs. Demographic Pass-Through by Generation (1950–2015)


    I overlaid the annual count of identified U.S. serial killers ( 3+ victims) with three demographic pass-through curves for the three major current US Generations (Baby Boomers, Gen X, and Millennials) each convolved with an active-age built from the Radford/FGCU serial-killer age stats.

    • Active-age bell curve: 20 – 45 years of age .  First, what % of SK's start between ages 20 and 45?  Using Radford/FGCU’s age-at-series-start distribution by decades: 20s = 45.3%, 30s = 27.0%, 40s = 10.7%. To translate “40s” into 40–45, we need a within-decade split; the report only provides 40–49. Assuming a roughly even spread across the 40–49 bin, 6 of 10 years (ages 40–45) would account for about 0.60 × 10.7% ≈ 6.4%.  BUT!  If anything that underestimates things because the younger you are in your 40's the more likely you are to not have physical disabilities that could impair your serial killing abilities so I'm going to arbitrarily bump that up to 7.7% which gives us an estimated share of the 20–45 age bracket to be ≈80% of serial killers.
    • Generations (birth years):
      • Baby Boomers: 1946–1964 (U.S. Census convention)
      • Gen X: 1965–1980 (Pew)
      • Millennials: 1981–1996 (Pew)

    What we see

    • Boomers : r ≈ 0.95 vs. the measured series. The curve rises in the early 1970s, peaks mid/late-1980s, and declines through the 1990s, matching the classic U.S. serial-killer surge/ebb REDONKULOUSLY  well.
    • Gen X (green, dashed): r ≈ 0.25. The curve peaks late 1990s–2000s (doesn't match at all.)
    • Millennials (yellow, dashed): r ≈ −0.23. Their pass-through ramps mostly after ~2005 (doesn't match at all. )

    Graph made in Chatgpt.

     (sources)

    Posted by jrralls

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    19 Comments

    1. charoco on

      The number of serial killers has dropped precipitously as law enforcement forensics have improved – as evidenced by the solid line in your graph. Of course the curve won’t match up well with Gen X and later.

    2. CatOfGrey on

      Probably not much of a ‘causal’ variable, but I’d love to see this correlated against atmospheric lead levels.

    4. agate_ on

      The obvious conclusion is that boomers are all serial killers, but I think this reflects copycat crime and the fads and trends of extreme misanthropes. Back in the ’70s, if you wanted to be the worst of the bad guys you’d take up serial killing. In the ’90s, all the cool psychopaths were doing workplace shootings. If you wanted to be a villain in the 2010’s, school shootings were where it was at.

    5. GreenYellowDucks on

      How do I read this for understanding the dashed lines for each generation? So millenials is just going up?

    10. reichjef on

      Lead baby. It’s all lead. Lead crime hypothesis is all but proved. The Middle East has just pulled lead from their gasoline, and now academics are looking at this, to see if the pattern continues. That will be the silver bullet if we see the trend continue.

      There’s a reason they are a generation of sociopaths. Some of it is cultural, but the environmental factors cannot be overlooked.

    11. goteamnick on

      I’m going to suggest another factor because it can’t be all lead exposure. Hitchhiking. People stopped hitchhiking because of how many people were getting murdered.

    12. OlderGrowth on

      Murderland is a book that just came out about this and it shows the majority of serial killers were children raised just downwind of heavy metal smelters, especially in the US. Environmental regulations basically closed all of the smelters from the turn of the century and forced them out of cities or overseas.

    13. krieger82 on

      Post WW2 tauma kind of apparent. Alcoholic vets recovering from misunderstood or untreated PTSD, abuse, broken homes, etc. Other factors sure, but I remember something about it from psych way back in the day.

    14. Ok-Panda-178 on

      It’s hard to be a serial killer nowadays when your possible target is live streaming, having phones listening in on you every single moment, and you leaving DNA samples everywhere you go

    16. RexScientiarum on

      To summarize the hypothesized correlates/causation in the comments:

      – removal of lead from gasoline

      – improvements in forensic science + social factors leading to more murders being solved before killer can become a serial murderer

      – social factors leading individuals with ASPD (broadly) to favor other types of antisocial behaviors such as mass shootings, etc. over serial murders

      There, reddit has already written someone’s criminology grant proposal or dissertation, or at least part of the intro. Have at it.

      I’d also like to add that this graph is fine and interesting but there is nothing particularly beautiful regarding the data visualization.

    17. cycling15 on

      I have read that some of the rise in serial killers was due to ptsd from ww2 veterans coming home. It was not a thing then so fathers that were suffering took it out on their families.

    18. FleshLogic on

      Another interesting thing I can read from this…. The numbers came down right in line with the development of genetic forensics. Much harder to get away with 3+ murders now before being caught. This effect also makes modern Forensic Files episodes much less entertaining. haha.