Von der Leyen: The EU will cover Ukraine’s financial needs for the next two years

Efektivna obrestna mera pa bo …?

Naslov je skorajda malo zavajajoč. Dejstvo je, da se bo to financiranje najverjetneje zagotovilo preko zamrznjenega ruskega premoženja kot posojilo Ukrajini, tako da bo praktično brez stroška za EU.

Je pa to vsekakor močno sporočilo Rusiji. Glede na njihovo gospodarsko stanje se mi zdi malo verjetno, da si lahko privoščijo še dve dodatni leti vojne, kar pomeni da bodo morali to neumno vojno prej ali slej končati.

Juhu!

Plešemo!

>EU bo pokril

A je mogoče tukaj kakšen slavist, da bi razložil, če je to pravilno? Opažam, da RTV konstantno omenja EU kot da je moškega spola, kar gre meni nenormalno na živce. EU = Evropska unija, unija je ženskega spola, a ne bi potem moralo biti “EU bo pokrila?”

En dober komentar o zaplembi ruskega premoženja.

Obligatory copypasta:

So basically they are discussing it again, with Belgium demanding legal guarantees that they will not face any consequences and will be compensated for it.

Why is Europe refusing to give those reserves ($200 bln. of Euroclear frozen assets) of Russian banks to Ukraine?

First, of course, fear of losing reputation. Reserves are stored in case of extreme circumstances, war IS extreme circumstances, and what’s the point in such reserves if they can be confiscated during war? (side note: Europe saying that Ukraine’s something unique sounds VERY unconvincingly next to Gaza). It’s said that Arabs threaten to dump their assets if Russian money is confiscated. That’s not because Arabic countries like Moscow so much: it’s because they too are afraid of such a precedent.

Second, Europe fears losing THEIR assets frozen by Russia. Siluanov said there’s even more of those in Russia than in Europe – most likely he lied, but in any case we are talking hundreds of billions of Euros.

Third, EU is afraid of lawsuits. Sovereign assets have VERY significant legal protection, and private investors have a VERY strong case of not being responsible for their state’s actions, no matter what kind of excuse Europe makes up. Any country has the right to decide who it will or will not trade with, but stealing someone else’s money is a big no-no. It will give grounds for lawsuits across the entire world, including Europe itself. (side note: nearly all of these frozen assets are kept in Belgium, and Belgium REALLY does not want to be made a scapegoat).

One more factor we usually don’t talk about: $200 billion in question is a RECORD IN A COMPUTER that is not worth anything by itself. These are NOT some goods in a warehouse worth $200 billion that are ready to be taken. Ukraine does not need records, it needs missiles. Giving those reserves to Ukraine is the same as paying it from the taxpayers’ money, macroeconomic effect will be ultimately the same.

Moreover, if EU returns these assets to Russia (and sooner or later they will have to!), Russia will dump them immediately too, buying something else instead of Euroclear. For instance, Russia can buy yuan, which will lead to happy Chinese buyers going to buy European stuff. So basically, in a simplified way, it’s the same as giving those $200 billion to China, and EU really, REALLY does not want to do that.

Merz, who does not risk anything here (Germany has some nationalized Russian enterprises but next to no assets), offered a brilliant (no) plan: give Ukraine a loan, and then have Ukraine pay it back after the war, from Russian reparations, keeping the frozen assets until it’s all paid back.

Great plan, Merz. Now Russia has to pay directly to EU, not Ukraine. (side note: previously Ukraine insisted on using EU financial aid for social expenses, not warfare, but here we have a direct opposite of that). No Russian government, even if Putin is ever removed, will ever agree to such conditions. Basically it means the assets will remain frozen in such case.

$200 bln is like 1% of EU GDP. Having a hostile Russia to the East costs WAY more than that, even if you take just defense spending. (side note: hostile Europe is costly to Russia too, but $200 billion is 10 times more significant for Russia here). And having stolen / frozen assets in background will always poison future negotiations. There won’t be a legal way to solve this issue, and no future EU politician will ever convince their electorate to pay $200 billion from their pockets.