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    [OC] Measuring the Impact of ICE
    Data

    [OC] Measuring the Impact of ICE

    Data from ICE, Immigration Enforcement Dashboard, and The Trace.

    Graphs made with Datawrapper and sourced from my blog, see link for full analysis and additional data: https://polimetrics.substack.com/p/why-enforcement-accountability-isnt

    ICE’s budget and size have increased dramatically since the second Trump administration took power.

    What have the impacts of those increases? More arrests, detentions, violence, and deaths.

    Posted by Public_Finance_Guy

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    15 Comments

    1. HegemonNYC on

      What is the difference between an arrest and a detention? Arrests seem to increase dramatically after Jan 2025, detentions only modestly. Arrests also involved a large number without conviction or charges, detentions very few. 

    3. not_right on

      This needs categories for people arrested who were going through the proper immigration process – like those arrested as they showed up to their court appointments. And for people arrested who were US citizens but who were arrested and detained due to ICE’s incompetence.

    5. GerryManDarling on

      Also kind of wild when you look at the numbers. ICE custody itself has been deadlier than people seem to realize. In 2025, ICE recorded 31 deaths in detention, the highest total in over twenty years. Causes included medical neglect, unsafe conditions, illness, suicide, and a few cases involving violence by guards or agents. That alone has raised alarms from watchdog groups and lawmakers.

      Meanwhile, there is no official national count showing how many people have been killed by crimes committed by undocumented immigrants in 2025 or 2026. What we do have are long‑running studies that point in the same direction: undocumented immigrants commit violent crime at lower rates than native‑born citizens.

      For example, Texas arrest data from 2012 to 2018 found the homicide arrest rate for U.S.‑born citizens was more than twice that of undocumented immigrants. Other research shows that tougher immigration enforcement does not lead to noticeable drops in violent crime.

      So when people frame mass detention and aggressive enforcement as a public safety fix, the math does not really back it up. If anything, the system itself is causing serious harm while solving a problem that is often exaggerated in the first place. In that sense, the cure looks a lot worse than the disease.

    6. Least_Post_6353 on

      While I’m not a fan of ICE and would agree with the point you’re trying to make – none of these graphs are ‘beautiful data’.

      The boring red Excel bar graph maybe makes your point the best but it’s ugly.

      The most beautiful graphs are the last two Excel ones, but they undermines the point about ICE by the last one highlighting that the majority of arrests were people pending criminal charges.

      Third to last Excel graph on monthly would make the point best as it highlights arrests of people not pending criminal charges, but even then it’s just an Excel bar graph and not particularly beautiful.

    7. Hot_Cheesecake_905 on

      How does this translate to detentions per death?

      Have detentions increased significantly in 2025?

    12. cory3281 on

      None of this crap would be necessary if Biden didn’t allow 8-10 million people to enter illegally.

    13. peterbound on

      Probably been answered, but is there a data set that captures the amount of actual deportations as a result of arrests or detention?

      I’d be real interesting to see the ‘result’ of the initial actions.

      Might be too early in the evolution of the surge, but having raw data to see if this is actually doing anything outside of pissing people off, would be nice.