![[OC] Estimated stock returns of US lawmakers in the last 3 months: Reps +6.3%, Dems +0.8%](https://www.byteseu.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/n2r09ov1bqhg1-1024x667.png "[OC] Estimated stock returns of US lawmakers in the last 3 months: Reps +6.3%, Dems +0.8%")
Some notes:
- Returns (last 3M): Democrats: +0.8% / Republicans: +6.3%
- Returns (since May-2022): Democrats: +131% / Republicans: +115%
- Net volume: Democrats: -$34M / Republicans: +$61.2M
- Top buyers: Jefferson Shreve from Reps (+$60M), Nancy Pelosi from Dems (+8.4M)
- Top sellers: Nancy Pelosi from Dems (-$42M), Tim Moore from Reps (-$0.6M)
- See 1st pic for Republican returns, 2nd for Democrat returns, 3rd for net volume, 4th for top buyers/sellers
Source: insidercat.com based on House/Senate financial disclosures
Posted by Due_Patient_2650
11 Comments
We pulled House/Senate financial disclosures in the last 3 months and aggregated. For dollar values, we took the midpoint of the value ranges in the disclosures. To estimate returns we used the TWR (time-weighted returns) formula to account for the impact of cash flows, just like how portfolio trackers calculate returns.
There might be errors in the data as some of the disclosure documents are literally filed by hand. Congress members have to declare their stock transactions in 45 days per STOCK act, though most disclose within 2 weeks.
Data source: House/Senate financial disclosures (all are in public domain)
Tools: Python for data pipelines, Next.js visualization and display
Confused by the vertical axis. Makes dems look more favored than reps?
Insiders usually sell more when the company is doing well.
Representative Shreve just bought 60 M !!! is this a red flag or just my imagination ??
You should add some sort of baseline, either general returns or the market averages
There have been a couple of studies on this and it turns out that they don’t tend to do much better than the market on average. That’s not to say they aren’t taking advantage of information as they certainly are but it’s not usually done through straight stock purchases and sells. They give the information to other people who then make money and give them kickbacks.
Most of their trades are just the obvious ones anybody with money would make, especially ones with people handling it for them. This is why making laws preventing them buying stocks is ultimately not a hard liner issue high up as that’s not where the money is being made on the whole. Dark money is the issue
Am I going mad here? Is there anything to stop me just copying exactly the stock market purchases and sales of these politicians and making money myself through copying them? At a smaller rate of investment, I mean.
It’s definitely not like threatening tariffs and putting a deadline on them only to delay them could manipulate the market and create opportunities for shorting the market… /s
It’s too bad that neither side will ever support a trading ban enough to get one enacted.
I have never heard of Jefferson Shreve, so I looked him up. Apparently he made a few hundred million with a storage rental company.
You should have included returns since Jan-2024
Some GOP lawmakers timed the tariffs perfectly. Surely just a coincidence.