![Asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has a 4% chance of hitting the moon in 2032- here's where the impact would be visible from on Earth. [OC]](https://www.byteseu.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/1770511753_dhyiu6qp35ig1-1536x1536.png "Asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has a 4% chance of hitting the moon in 2032- here’s where the impact would be visible from on Earth. [OC]")
The timing of the hypothetical impact of 2024 YR4 on the moon is known to within minutes. A nearside impact is much more likely than a farside one, and would absolutely be visible with small telescopes. The resulting explosion of the 22 million ton asteroid would provide massive scientific returns, not only on the structure and character of the subsurface, but through seismic observation the deep interior as well and studies of the fresh kilometer-scale crater. An estimated 100,000 tons of material would leave the moon, much of it remaining in cislunar space for months or years. The global meteor showers can be expected to be terrific, though would pose a hazard to satellites.
In the astrophysics world, 4.3 percent is remarkably high. By 2028, we'll have much more refined data and should be able to confirm or rule out a lunar impact.
https://i.redd.it/dhyiu6qp35ig1.png
17 Comments
Took me way too long to realise I was looking at a circle on a map and not a globe.
Nice! Looking forward to seeing this if it happens. What’s the estimated date of impact, though?
Gonna go Japan for christmas in 2032 I guess!
I wonder if the face/rabbit in the moon would look different if this happened
It looks like a lot of the best places to view this event, assuming it actually collides with the moon, will be in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
4,3%. Lets see on 2032.. maybe low to 1%
Can we aim out at Washington DC instead?
Shuffle the Olympics back a few weeks … awesome way to finish the Brisbane 2032 closing ceremony
Australia once again demonstrates its geographic advantages and contributions to Space Domain Awareness. Come install your telescopes here, we have 4000 horizontal kilometres of sky you can observe.
can’t have shit in Brazil, smh
Those of us in the Pacific Northwest see this and know it will likely be raining that day.
It’s going to probably go up too until it suddenly drops down to zero.
December over the US?
already know it’s going to be a cloudy day
I’m not a smart person when it comes to space stuff but, why are we celebrating this? Don’t we need the moon to be remain where it is? To not get damaged?
Would the lunar colony be in any danger?
That is entirely enough time to get some probes up on the moon, some underneath where it might hit, and some on the horizon from there.
Well, as long as it actually hits the moon instead of us…
4% chance of impact AKA 96% chance of not impact…