Tisza leads by 55-35 among decided voters, with a big lead among total population as well, Medián poll shows

This campaign is one hell of an emotional rollercoaster.

Good. As always, dont become complacent, victory is never guaranteed, and you’ll need as much seats as you can to properly de-orbanize Hungary, you can never have too much seats, so keep going and try to win a majority that is as overwhelming as possible.

Hungarians refreshing Medián like it’s the stock market in 2008: “don’t get attached, don’t get attached”… meanwhile that 97% turnout number is doing cardio.

It’s less a campaign at this point and more a nationwide stress test.

there was a lead last time in polls as well. Is different now?

TL;DR from the paywalled article:
According to a nationally representative, 1,000‑person survey conducted by Median between February 18–23, the gap between the two major parties has widened noticeably by the official start of the campaign: among committed voters who know whom they would choose, the Tisza Party now leads Fidesz by 20 percentage points. In the overall voting‑age population the lead is 11 points, and among all voters who can name a party it’s 13 points. The main driver of the gap is turnout: 97% of Tisza supporters say they are certain to vote on April 12, compared to 85% of Fidesz voters.

Compared to January, Tisza gained 2 points while Fidesz lost 2, and among committed voters the shift is 4–4 points in Tisza’s favor. In other words, the gap has continued to widen over the past month: +4 points in the full population and +8 among committed voters.

Among smaller parties, Mi Hazánk has grown slightly (within the margin of error) and is above the 5% parliamentary threshold in every measurement. The Two‑Tailed Dog Party and the Democratic Coalition are stagnating at 1–2%, and all other measurable formations combined don’t reach 1%, partly due to withdrawals.

An interesting twist: Tisza has regained the lead in perceived election chances as well. Among the voting‑age population, 43% expect Tisza to win, while 41% think Fidesz will stay in power. According to the poll, Tisza has shaken off its autumn slowdown and is once again leading with the momentum it had last summer.

Recent scandals likely influenced the trends. The health risks surrounding the Samsung factory in Göd and the teased hidden‑camera footage targeting Péter Magyar are both widely known: 89% of respondents have heard about them. But there’s a big difference in awareness: 27% of Fidesz voters say they haven’t heard about the Göd contamination at all, suggesting that unpleasant news reaches the party’s core supporters less effectively.

Overall, 72% of society believes the government may have known about the serious health risks at the Göd plant; only 12% think otherwise. And 64% of the voting‑age population believes the scandal hurts Fidesz’s chances (26% say significantly). Even one‑third of Fidesz voters acknowledge the issue could damage the governing party.

The hidden‑camera case is more divisive: 23% say it hurts Tisza, 24% say it hurts Fidesz, and half believe it has no meaningful impact. Opinions on the tactic itself are sharply split: nearly half of respondents consider secretly recorded smear footage unacceptable, while a similar share emphasizes that the private behavior of a political leader is not irrelevant.

Orban’ s days are numbered.
But do the US and Russia have another couple of “their own” candidates lined up in EC?

Does Tisza plan to roll back anti-LGBTQI+ legislation Orban put in place? I kind of doubt it because they seem to be a center-right “catch-all” party but it would be good if they be brave

Soon Orban will be gone and Hungary will be free again!!

And how many of undecided are just Orban voters that are ashamed to admit who they vote for? In Poland you can automatically give most “undecided” % to PiS as seen in our last presidential elections. The fight will be close and I fear the result may be upsetting.

I’m sure Orban will try to steal the election.

How does it relate to Politico polls average? From looks of it Tisza is getting weaker every week and Fidesz seems to overtake Tisza around early April. The gap decreased from 9%pp from Jan 14th to 6%pp In Feb 17th.

The system was designed to keep Orbán in power, it is rigged and cannot be beaten. Only if Orbán wants it. If votes could achieve anything, there wouldn’t be votes at all.