For Istat, the “provisional” deficit for 2025 is 3.1%: it would not be enough to exit the EU infringement procedure. GDP grew by 0.5%, less than expected. Tax pressure at 43.1%, up compared to the previous year (it was 42.4%)

It is not a definitive figure (that arrives at the end of April), but if Italy did not go below 3% it would be a great setback for the government which had staked everything on this in the December budget. For Giorgetti it’s always the fault of the super bonus (do you have a problem? are you sad? A terrible flood? The locusts? it’s always the fault of the super bonus…)

The most important macroeconomic policy objective of Meloni and Giorgetti – the return of the deficit below 3% and the exit from the European infringement procedure – has not yet been achieved. The Istat data communicated yesterday froze the Government: Italy in 2025 is at 3,1%. However, the institute specifies, the data is not definitive: the “number” that will be officially communicated in Brussels will be available in the spring, after the consolidated public administration account.

The Istat data for 2025 actually have more shadows than lights. Last year GDP grew by only 0.5%. While the overall tax burden was 43.1%increasing compared to the previous year (it was 42.4%), due to a growth in tax and contribution revenues (+4.2%) higher than that of GDP at current prices (+2.5%). The issue of tax pressure is mainly addressed by Matteo Renzi, who for months has been asking Meloni to account for the burden of taxes and inviting the minority to put the Government in difficulty on what was supposed to be one of the strong points of the legislature. It is no coincidence that Renzian Faraone talks about «Dracula government». Again, the dem Misiani recalls that at the beginning of the legislature the Government inherited a tax pressure of 41.7%: “In fact, last year Italian families and businesses paid over 31 billion euros in taxes and contributions more than what they would have paid if the tax pressure had remained at the level of three years before”.

Returning to the deficit, the result of 3.1% marks an improvement compared to 2024, when it stopped at 3.4%. Nonetheless, public debt rose to 137.1% (it was at 134.7% in 2024). As mentioned, it is an evolution of the macroeconomic framework that could call into question the exit from the EU procedure for excessive deficit, postponing the “normalization” of public finances to 2027. It is also a political problembecause even the pre-election maneuver would be conditioned by the primary objective of returning below 3%. For the moment the majority forces are trying to see the glass half full: for Ylenja Lucasellideputy economic manager of FdI, the data on the deficit “is good news for Italy and confirms the seriousness of the choices made by this Government regarding public accounts”.