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    Fact check: VAT on private school fees unlikely to increase state class sizes
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    Fact check: VAT on private school fees unlikely to increase state class sizes

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    23 Comments

    1. rainbow3 on

      It says they won’t increase because there are fewer children. So the class sizes won’t be higher than today but they will be higher than they would have otherwise been. Also it is not clear from the article but presumably those falling numbers are in the early years. We are not currently seeing smaller class sizes for teens are we?

      And it largely depends on the geographic distribution. If one private school loses a lot of pupils or closes then those pupils will all be going to schools in that local area.

    2. Squire-1984 on

      Feels like this is grasping at straws a bit. I do know that this will result in even more competition for the “good” state schools, which in theory will have a knock on effect on things like house prices

    5. Emotional-Ebb8321 on

      There’s about 2600 public schools teaching 615,000 children. There are nine million state-funded school places. Assuming half the public school kids move to state, that means one extra student in a class of 30 on average.

      Now sure, 30 is a big class, and probably bigger than it should be. But even a back of the envelope calculation shows it won’t be the educational class size apocalypse naysayers claimed.

    6. Business_Ad561 on

      The issue isn’t so much class sizes, it’s Labour’s insistence on stifling ambition and bringing down everyone to be mediocre – God forbid we actually have top schools where children thrive and actually go on to do great things with their lives.

    7. RockTheBloat on

      That seems like a highly flawed analysis. Any increase will be very localised, not spread throughout the state system, and it would happen in the short term, which may be difficult to cope with at affected schools (or not, I’m not making predictions). Also, isn’t the relevant factor the delta between what numbers end up being and what they would have ended up being without the policy, rather than total projected future numbers?

    8. not_who_you_think_99 on

      Some very, very approximate numbers. Please do jump in to correct them as I’m sure there are imprecisions.

      There are some 615,000 students in private schools.

      Average tuition is, what?, £18k per year. Schools will reclaim some VAT, so let’s say net VAT will be in the region of 15%, i.e. £2,700

      Funding per pupil in state schools is ca £ 7,500: [https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-funding-statistics](https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-funding-statistics)

      If more than 27%ish of pupils to move from private to state schools, then the government coffers are worse off.

    9. _Heisenberg87 on

      4 schools in my local area would have 3 reception classes each year. Last September they had two and this September they had 1.

      Most schools now have 3 to 4 class rooms that are now sensory rooms or turned into libraries.

    10. pudpudboogie on

      Should make it a sliding scale of VAT , for every % of school capacity given to free places to lower income families , vat is reduced by said %

    11. SeditiousPocket on

      My child’s science class is already 36 children at GCSE year and the classroom size can only just cope, not all students have a desk. Not sure we can add any more students to that – there is no class size limit at secondary. It’s also a school with an educated and middle class demographic and has a good Ofsted. Lots of people in the area send their child private even though the state provision is excellent. This is where you’ll get more pupils. You won’t get the sharp elbows in the schools that need it, you’ll get them in the already well provisioned areas.

    12. winkwinknudge_nudge on

      It’s an interesting discussion around this.

      Cost increased 3x since the 80’s, average cost now around £17k. ✅

      Introducing a tax to help state schools? “Oh no won’t someone think of the children not being able to afford private education. ” ❌

    13. RedFox3001 on

      Round my way class sizes are shrinking due to lack of kids. They’re talking about removing classes and/or closing schools in the future.

      There’s room. Don’t worry

    14. ig1 on

      Fundamentally the problem with the VAT approach is that there’s no VAT on house prices.

      There’s two ways to get your children into a good school, pay for private or pay for a house near a good school. If the price for one goes up parents will switch their school fee budget into housing budget.

      Which ironically will make it harder for less well off families to get their children into good state schools because they’ll get priced out of the good areas.

    16. Limedistemper on

      It won’t much, overall. In my area there is one outstanding state school where house prices are already very high. I think families pulling their kids out of private are likely to move to those areas, pushing poorer kids out and into the rest of the schools, nearly all of which are crap. That’s my main concern with the policy.

      Also, private schools have a bursary pot to help fund places for poorer kids. That money is likely to go to existing students at risk of having to leave due to the huge increase in fees, meaning less places for working class children on full bursary.

      All in all, a truly ill thought out policy that benefits absolutely no one that matters.

    18. TuMek3 on

      Haven’t private school fees increased by an average of 18% since Covid? Was here a huge exodus of pupils?

    19. Tricky_Peace on

      It will still affect the poorest of the cohort that see a private education as most necessary requirement for their family, disproportionately affecting those with special educational requirements, and those schools such as Montessori schools. It will not affect the schools of the elite, the Eton and Winchesters – and it makes a private education more of a playground of the rich.

    20. DJToffeebud on

      Have the parents considered cancelling Netflix or giving up avocado to cover the extra?

    21. knotse on

      Note that it would be trivial to subsidise private schooling fees for anyone who could demonstrate the need, both meaning no one need fall afoul of the VAT application and that some who would otherwise not have considered private schooling might take advantage of it.

    22. queen-bathsheba on

      If some private schools need to close I hope those teachers move to state schools.

    23. ice-lollies on

      I fundamentally disagree with a tax on education. And not only education, it’s targeted at children’s education.

      This isn’t helping anyone. This is a disgraceful policy.

      I think it might be even worse than the national conscription idea and that’s bad enough.