If Hungary’s opposition aren’t declared winners of the upcoming election, what are the chances of major civil unrest?
https://glavcom.ua/texts_in_english/orbans-elections-for-hungary-is-a-budapest-maidan-possible-1112431.html
Posted by DefoNotTheAnswer
24 Comments
100%
Hopefully we see a 2020-21 Belarusian style uprising that actually ousts that Russian asset.
I was wandering the same
thing. As an ethnic hungarian, with dual citizenship, living in Romania, I am watching with restlessness as to what my friends and countryman over the border will do. However after the large scale civil disobedience at Budapest Pride last Spring… I am hopeful that Orbans days as prime minister are coming to an end.
It’s just gonna be Belarus/Georgia all over again. People will protest. Government will ignore it. Brussels will do nothing because we’re ruled by neolibs and neocons who hate to be told to do their fucking job
100%
There is not a small chance of opposition winning but being unable to bring the change they want. Many places have people from current government. Judges, police chiefs, mayors, clerks on every level and also president. Those will make things hard and make change velocity slow to a crawl. It would be a long battle. Might take too long for changes to happen that disappointment in the next election brings Orban back. And this might be Orban’s plan B.
the more cutting question is what happens in the situation in which tisza wins, but orban refuses to concede and perhaps even proclaims a state of exception with curfew. peaceful transfers of power among the right have hardly been in vogue since jan6, followed up by bolsonaro and even a pre-electoral attempt by yoon of south korea. should this turn out to be the case, i don’t think we should be pretending to ourselves that this will not spill over into other countries, especially what with the yachtload of circumstantial evidence pointing to abnormally high levels of coordinated action between fidesz and the serbian sns.
I’m clueless about Hungarian society, but couldn’t the opposite possibly trigger more civil unrest?
I thought that the pro-Orbán/Fidesz supporters would more prone to civil unrest than the pro-Tisza party. Because for example, I imagine some pro-Orbáns are suffering from the propaganda fear that “if Tisza wins, it’d be WW3 or Hungarians dying for Ukraine”, etc.?
So basically the EU will orchestrate a coup if their favoured candidate does not win.
I wish you all luck. Everything is wild everywhere but something has to right and start the ball rolling AWAY from the cliff. I believe it HAS to work out
The situation would be interesting. Orban does not have majority support, he barely ever had.
The police is underfunded and corrupt. Thousands of police jobs are vacant.
The army is underfunded and led by yes men.
They do have hundreds if not thousands of holligans and thugs, villing to beat up protesters but any popular uprising would not be met by force.
There is very little they can lean on when push comes to shove.
this is our one and only chance to be free. i will save my nation and so will everyone i know. we’ve survived worse than this larva
42
Hungarian here: if major means it achieves something, then zero.
If we don’t win this election fair and square (as “”fair”” as it can be) it just confirms that outside the major cities our society is just a bunch of miserable sheeple who rather hate and point fingers instead of prosper, and Orbán is indeed the fitting person to lead such society.
I would love to think that we are smarter than that, and it is all just a rigged election with fake ballot counts, but that is simply not true. If Orbán stays, it means that the majority of hungarians chose russia over europe.
There will be some protest in Budapest for sure with zero results, and people who can, will migrate en mass (probably a few hundred-thousand) but that will be it.
EU needs to be prepared to hermetically shut off this country from all decisions otherwise it will be impaired and the European cooperation will be eroded by one or two rogue states.
Why would Hungary’s opposition need to be declared winner?
I think whoever gets enough votes and wins should be declared winner.
100% It will be at least mostly peaceful, as people in police and military were quite exploited by this regime, and they mostly hate it.
We’re so polarized at this point that no matter who wins, you can expect long-lasting unrest and legal fights from both sides. One side is convinced the opposition is heading for a supermajority, so anything less than a clear, comfortable win won’t be accepted. The other side is convinced that if Orbán loses, it’ll mean war and chaos, so in their eyes the opposition has to be stopped at all costs.
The worst-case scenario is the opposition winning the party-list vote but still ending up with fewer seats in parliament than Orbán’s party. That’s very possible, since individual district results can’t really be captured in polls, and the opposition votes might split in some districts resulting in a win for Orbán’s party. The far-right Mi Hazánk party could also clear the threshold and end up forming a coalition with Orbán. And on top of that, there’s a lot of room for abuse with mail-in ballots, which could easily swing 1–2 extra seats his way.
This is not 2022. Orban has no real chance this time, if they still somehow win, things will get fucking ugly in every possible way
None, Fidesz could simply follow Iran’s example. With muzzled judges and media, you’re basically above the law.
why do people hate being free and wants to be ruled by unelected bureaucrats from Brussels?
None. Less than that.
Modern europeans have no balls – except french funnily enough. But even french riots feel a little performative and more importantly, never change anything either.
100%
i love my country, i love my culture, i want to stay here and i’m itching to throw these treacherous bastards out. and there are many more like me.
Hungary would just veto the civil unrest and everyone would give up.
The US will send troops in to enforce a curfew on grounds that EU meddled.