The Civic Coalition, Law and Justice and the Confederation were on the podium of the latest parliamentary poll. However, the last of these groups is recording a decline in support. Apart from that, there would be only one more party in the Sejm.
In the latest poll, prepared by the National Research Group (OGB) for the Stan 360 portal, respondents were asked who they would vote for in the parliamentary elections.
The survey shows that the Civic Coalition can currently count on the support of (37.99 per cent of Poles) (an increase of 0.1 percentage points), and Law and Justice on 29.77 per cent (an increase of 1 percentage point).
New poll. KO, PiS and Confederation on the podium
The Confederation would also be on the podium with support at the level of 11.42 per cent (a decrease of 1.5 percentage points). The Confederation of the Polish Crown would also enter the Sejm with 10 percent of support (an increase of 1 percentage point).
Below the electoral threshold, on the other hand, would be: the New Left (4.92 per cent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points), the Together Party (3.29 per cent, an increase of 1 percentage point), the PSL (1.57 per cent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points) and Poland 2050 (1.04 per cent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points).
This means that if the scenario envisaged in the poll were to be implemented, none of the current coalition partners of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s party would enter the Sejm.
The Civic Coalition could then count on 209 seats in the Sejm, PiS – on 159 seats, the Confederation on 47and the KKP – on 45.
The study was conducted using the CATI method between March 25 and April 4 on a representative group of 1,000 people.
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-braun-goni-mentzena-coraz-blizej-mijanki-w-nowym-sondazu,nId,23324774
Posted by Gamebyter
15 Comments
Only saving grace is Lewica and KO create one party list. This is using Dhondt method where the combined party has 42.91% same as when PIS first won control with only 37%
[Wybory parlamentarne w Polsce w 2015 roku – Wikipedia, wolna encyklopedia](https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wybory_parlamentarne_w_Polsce_w_2015_roku)
* **KO + Lewica: 231 seats**
* **PiS: 145 seats**
* **Konfederacja: 45 seats**
* **KKP: 39 seats**
How anyone can support Braun is beyond me.
>This means that if the scenario envisaged in the poll were to be implemented, **none of the current coalition partners** of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s party would enter the Sejm.
They sank their own ship. Now they have to live with the consequences. Everything suggests that unless they reach an agreement with Mentzen (which is unlikely), they won’t be able to hold on to power after the next election. We’ll just have a mirror image of the current situation—the party that wins the election has no say, only this time that party is KO.
At this point I think this society deserves what they are voting for.
Why had Braun such a growth? I wonder.. I saw that in the last election (2017) he had just 0,9%. Now far over 5%. How did that happen?
It’s hard for me to believe that Razem will not enter. They were always under counted in polls. I can understand Lewica loosing support with the base, but even then I would expect them to perform on 5% threshold. Braun getting 10% is insanity.
KO government be like:
>try to sink your own coalition members
>they sink
>”how could the far-right do this?”
Idą brunatni, idą brunatni…
Sad day for Poland
Polexit is coming whether people like it or not.
38% for KO is equally absurd, but here we are.
(Still PL2050 and PSL staying out might be worth it 🙂
No wonder we keep getting invaded and partitioned if we’re so stupid to keep supporting PiS, Konfederacja and Braun
I have a feeling that in the upcoming elections we can expect some unusual coalitions on the electoral ballots, such as the right-wing faction of KO + the more liberal wing of Mentzen’s Confederation, the left-wing faction of KO with the Left (i.e., like the current coalition), the conservative wing of PiS (Czarnek) and the Braunists, and the nationalists from the Confederation with the rest of PiS. Nowruski will certainly endorse this Czarnek + Braun arrangement. The PSL will collaborate with anyone, as long as the positions are right. It’s just a shame about Razem…
Here’s my prediction of what will happen in the next few years in Polish politics
In 2027, PiS and Confederation form a minority coalition government with KKP providing confidence and supply. That government though will be very weak and unstable and there will be constant infighting between the parties involved as well.
The PiS/Confederation/KKP government will eventually collapse early and snap elections will be held around 2029. Civic Coalition will then win an absolute majority in the Sejm.
Razem and Lewica voters now: