The Aliyevs are the worst thing that’s ever happened to Azerbaijan
HanaTaiyouAme on
Very interesting article. Few people realize that Aliyev is actively shifting his regime from mere sultanism to family-based rule. It’s obviously a desperate attempt at solidifying his footing in a situation where he and Mehriban have eliminated almost all independent actors in Azeri politics and economy. For Aliyev, who obviously copied the Gulf/UAE model of governance, the end point for Azerbaijan is becoming Aliyev Inc. If Heydar started the idea that “Aliyev is the State”, then Ilham may as well conclude it in a literal sense.
But I would be more skeptical about Nağı’s prediction that this approach will mirror Kazakhstan’s fate. For one, Kazakh economy is far more diversified than Azeri, creating more potential alternate sources of power to the ruling regime. In Azerbaijan, the only viable industry is oil/gas, and all other industries fundamentally depend on the flow of petrodollars to function. Since Aliyevs control that flow, they have no theoretical challenging sources of power capable of arising. Secondly, Kazakhstan (and Syria) had a large rural underclass that was willing to desperately protest against the regime even as it opened fire at them. But half of Azerbaijan lives on the Absheron peninsula, and the rural population is obscenely loyal to Aliyev, and only dislikes the low-level bureaucracy it deals with every day.
Therefore, I don’t think the regime’s shift to “Aliyevi Azerbaijan” will necessarily produce much backlash. The regime has been firmly consolidated over 60 years (since 1969) of rule, a victorious pivotal war, and gargantuan Western backing.
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The Aliyevs are the worst thing that’s ever happened to Azerbaijan
Very interesting article. Few people realize that Aliyev is actively shifting his regime from mere sultanism to family-based rule. It’s obviously a desperate attempt at solidifying his footing in a situation where he and Mehriban have eliminated almost all independent actors in Azeri politics and economy. For Aliyev, who obviously copied the Gulf/UAE model of governance, the end point for Azerbaijan is becoming Aliyev Inc. If Heydar started the idea that “Aliyev is the State”, then Ilham may as well conclude it in a literal sense.
But I would be more skeptical about Nağı’s prediction that this approach will mirror Kazakhstan’s fate. For one, Kazakh economy is far more diversified than Azeri, creating more potential alternate sources of power to the ruling regime. In Azerbaijan, the only viable industry is oil/gas, and all other industries fundamentally depend on the flow of petrodollars to function. Since Aliyevs control that flow, they have no theoretical challenging sources of power capable of arising. Secondly, Kazakhstan (and Syria) had a large rural underclass that was willing to desperately protest against the regime even as it opened fire at them. But half of Azerbaijan lives on the Absheron peninsula, and the rural population is obscenely loyal to Aliyev, and only dislikes the low-level bureaucracy it deals with every day.
Therefore, I don’t think the regime’s shift to “Aliyevi Azerbaijan” will necessarily produce much backlash. The regime has been firmly consolidated over 60 years (since 1969) of rule, a victorious pivotal war, and gargantuan Western backing.
https://preview.redd.it/x68zts44ulug1.jpeg?width=1199&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6ef811afc153158ed9ac932473b4cfeafa8c95dd
The Aliyev family are the best thing that happened to Azerbaijan