The Real Reason Iran Hasn’t Struck a Deal
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/iran-us-negotiations-ceasefire/687025/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo
The Real Reason Iran Hasn’t Struck a Deal
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/iran-us-negotiations-ceasefire/687025/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo
10 Comments
Thomas Wright: “On Monday, Iran made Donald Trump an offer: It would open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade while nuclear negotiations continued. On Wednesday, Trump rejected this offer, promising to keep the blockade in place until Iran agrees to America’s terms on the nuclear issue …
“The Trump administration’s explanation for this standoff is that there is an ‘absolute fracture’ in the Iranian regime between the military and the negotiators. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News that ‘unfortunately, the hard-liners with an apocalyptic vision of the future have the ultimate power in that country,’ especially because the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is ‘untested’ and ‘has not been seen.’
“The administration now appears to be gaming out a new course of action: strikes targeting not Iran’s military capacity but the faction inside the regime that it believes is blocking a deal …
“The assumption underlying this approach is almost certainly wrong. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has proved far more resilient than either Washington or Jerusalem anticipated. An institution that has survived multiple rounds of air strikes, international isolation, and the death of much of its senior leadership does not capitulate because a few more names are removed from the org chart. And hard-liners are spread throughout the regime, not just in the IRGC.
“Iran and the United States have failed to come to an agreement not because hard-liners are blocking pragmatists inside Iran, but because both sides seem to sincerely believe that they have won the war.”
Read more: [https://theatln.tc/QBiu9K90](https://theatln.tc/QBiu9K90)
Why commit when they still have leverage?
I won’t believe this offer was real unless it’s confirmed by the Iranian foreign minister. Otherwise its just more lies from the US regime
Could we get a gift link to this article?
A week or two ago I got a gift link for a piece on Cuba and was very impressed. The Atlantic might be the next publication that I splurge on a subscription for, but would like to read a few more articles.
The question is – can/will China prop up the regime in exchange for future oil contracts?
Providing just financial support would be in line with China’s ostrich policy.
Similar to Hamas, any acceptable “deal” to the US has to lead to the end of the regime. Any acceptable deal for the IR has to lead to holding onto some power. There’s nothing that the IR can really offer and so this whole negotiation is charade to serve some other purpose.
In addition to the nuclear threat, the OR has now demonstrated how much of an economic threat they can be. Both will have to be shut down. The negotiations buy time for the world to adapt to instability in the Strait. Once the markets normalize to it and alternatives are in place, the regime will evaporate.
If we’re being real with ourselves, Iran knows that a US ground invasion is off of the table until after the midterms. Washington now knows (and they would never admit this publicly) to “win” they need a total and complete regime change. That means 100’s of thousands boots on the ground. That’s why th pentagon wants $200 billion now. That’s why they want to increase defense spending to 1.5T next year. Iran has zero incentive to negotiate until after the midterms.
That means the strait remains the global albatross through 2026.
That means massive independent and moderate conservatives vote for democrats. They literally can’t afford not to. Gas in American will be over $5 a gallon by June.
What happens if the democrats win in November?
Iran wins.
No one will vote for funding a war that would send thousands of Americans to die. Iran looks around at the rubble and says, “can’t get much worse!”
Iran hasn’t agreed to a full deal because
A) there is an internal power struggle and they’ve built up a public personal for their own people that won’t allow for anything short of their demands
B) If the civilian government capitulates in a way the IRGC doesn’t want, there will be a civil war
I’ve seen a lot of people talking up there being a fracture on the internet and Trump’s white House has been pushing it hard as well. It sounds like pr for trump and co. to make it seem like the only reason that can’t cut a deal is because of infighting in Iran. Otherwise why release it publicly? Pointing it out does no good and holding on to information like that could help with strategy.
Iran risks overplaying their hand in the long run. The global community is going to find new routes and supply chains to avoid Hormuz moving forward. The issue is this is a matter of survival for the regime so they’re not thinking that far ahead.