[EXCLUSIVE]: Sunak to lose seat in Tory wipeout, major poll predicts

***From The Telegraph:***

Rishi Sunak is predicted to become the first sitting prime minister ever to lose their seat at a general election.

The Conservatives are also on track to slump to just 53 seats, with around three-quarters of the Cabinet voted out, a major opinion poll for The Telegraph has revealed.

The Liberal Democrats are on course to be just behind the Tories on 50 MPs, according to the Savanta and Electoral Calculus polling analysis, leaving them in touching distance of becoming the official opposition.

Labour is forecast to have 516 seats and an estimated House of Commons majority of 382 – double that won by Sir Tony Blair in 1997 – as Sir Keir Starmer becomes prime minister.

Meanwhile Reform, despite a surge in the polls, is predicted to get zero seats. For Nigel Farage, the recently returned Reform leader, it would mean an eighth defeat as a parliamentary candidate in a row.

The SNP, according to the poll, are predicted to slump to just eight MPs, down from 48 in 2019, with Labour once again the dominant party of Scotland as they were under Sir Tony.

The polling suggests Tory warnings of a Labour “super-majority” are accurate. It also lays bare the scale of voter disillusionment with the Tories and suggests an uncertain road for the party in the years ahead.

**Read more:** [**https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/19/rishi-sunak-to-lose-seat-tory-wipeout-major-poll-predicts/**](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/19/rishi-sunak-to-lose-seat-tory-wipeout-major-poll-predicts/)

I’d be amazed if Reform won zero seats. Those angry old tories have to go somewhere

As much as I want Labour to win, I would rather there was a strong opposition.

Things are getting a bit silly with the MRPs.

There are a lot of seats which a reasonable pollster would say are within 5%. So a polling methodology difference between say YouGov and Savanta shows a 100 seat difference. And potentially a swing in the polls between now and election day could as well. 

Labour will almost certainly top 400 seats, any guess beyond that is a mugs game.

What does annoy me a lot, in a really boils my blood kind of way, is I am legally required on penalty of contempt of court not to be hungover or tired on the 5th so I can’t stay up doing shots for each cabinet member losing a seat.

Once in a generation chance for Labour to **actually do something**, with no opposition (think, founding the NHS, or the welfare state, or the State Pension), and to know that they are going to do **nothing** is just so, so disheartening.

Worse, it will just allow the far right, or some even-more-right version of the Tory Party to walk back in in 5 or (maybe) 10 years, and sell everything off again.

It’s like watching Labours super-majority in New Zealand (with has a form of PR, so no party has *ever* got a majority before), do nothing, and then end up in opposition in the next election.

I would love to see Lib Dems become the official opposition.

This poll is irrelevant. Sunak will be in California in September putting his kids into college there. It’s exactly why the election was in July. He knows it’s over so he wants to get over to the US before the new school term.

Like he gives a shit. This is literally the best outcome for sunak. He can now happily fuck off to enjoy his massive pile of money,

Imagine if people started voting for Lib Dem such that the Conservatives did not even become the official opposition.

People are fed up, it’s only natural that they will turn and a happy coincidence for labor that they’re fed up in England and Scotland simultaneously.