Putin has his back against wall – and he’s bolder than ever

Full analysis article: It is a reminder that the current Russian leadership, despite suffering setbacks on the battlefields of [Ukraine](https://inews.co.uk/topic/ukraine?ico=in-line_link), and a war now felt sometimes uncomfortably close to home, remains defiant — and, perhaps, increasingly unpredictable.

When a plane carrying the Defence Secretary, John Healey, back from a visit to Estonia was subject to an electronic warfare attack, suspicion immediately fell on [Russia](https://inews.co.uk/topic/russia?ico=in-line_link). It is no surprise: in recent years we have seen drones disrupting air traffic; an arson attack in London; apparent threats to undersea cables.

The last case prompted Healey himself to personally address the Russian President, [Vladimir Putin](https://inews.co.uk/topic/vladimir-putin?ico=in-line_link), “We see you”, and to warn of “serious consequences”.

Perhaps the jamming of the RAF jet carrying the Defence Secretary was ordered by Putin himself as a provocative riposte. The UK has come to occupy a special place in Putin’s loathing of the West. Russia now sees the UK as its greatest foe — a status that was confirmed last year.

Healey’s visit to [Estonia](https://inews.co.uk/topic/estonia?srsltid=AfmBOop76rsVHJsG35MmuWE8vhD5WNBWVYh7KsHGN_do2krwzh3KM9H-&ico=in-line_link) in particular may have irritated Putin. Estonia, along with Lithuania and Latvia, are the focus of a particular political sensitivity in Russia. For most of the second half of the last century, the three Baltic republics were ruled from the Kremlin. Today, they are members of [Nato](https://inews.co.uk/topic/nato?ico=in-line_link), staunch supporters of Ukraine, and [on the front line](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/tiny-country-faced-putin-britain-learn-4375663?ico=in-line_link) of the West’s conflict with Russia.

By targeting the Defence Secretary’s plane, Russia’s armed forces are warning Western governments that there is still much they can do — even if victory in Ukraine [remains out of reach](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/ukraine-drone-killing-interceptors-turning-tide-against-putin-4393440?ico=in-line_link) — to menace, and disrupt.

And it is worth remembering that Kyiv is yet to be defeated. On the battlefield, Ukraine now claims to be causing more Russian casualties each month than Moscow’s military machine can recruit.

Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia may seem small compared to the massive destruction Russian weapons have caused in Ukraine since the [full-scale invasion in February 2022](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russia-when-invade-ukraine-2022-why-putin-started-war-timeline-conflict-2160097?ico=in-line_link). But Ukraine’s ability to [hit targets in Russia](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/deadly-black-rain-attacks-putins-important-industry-4397490?srsltid=AfmBOop8OlNuBouq4mVKbWqSfaPs4MKb-U1yzChdw0-AWNr_On_dW4tg&ico=in-line_link), including in the Moscow region, serve much more than a military purpose.

The Kremlin’s decision to designate the war on Ukraine as a “special military operation” — rather than an actual war — served an important propaganda purpose: so important, in fact, that any journalist not using the phrase even risks jail. The message to the Russian people was simple: you do not need to worry about what is happening in Ukraine. It is not a war. It is a special operation. The Kremlin has everything under control.

It no longer does. The effects of the war are coming [closer to the Kremlin walls](https://inews.co.uk/opinion/putin-destroyed-russia-lost-war-4430664?ico=in-line_link): a scaled-down Victory Day parade on 9 May; internet breakdowns in Russia’s big cities prompted by fears that attackers, maybe even assassins, might hijack communications to strike.

This sense that the war is now something affecting the everyday lives of ordinary people and political elites has led to discontent. Media reports in recent weeks that Putin may face some kind of palace coup do not mean his regime is at immediate risk. The Russian president has spent decades building a political system in which it is now almost impossible to challenge him. Liberal and nationalist opponents alike have paid heavily, sometimes with their lives.

So, for the time being at least, Putin can probably manage that domestic discontent. International affairs are less obvious. The Trump administration’s willingness to give Russia’s views on Ukraine a hearing may have brought some relief. [It has not yet helped to deliver victory](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/putin-trump-cant-win-their-wars-rest-world-will-suffer-4428495?ico=in-line_link).

Putin’s recent visit to China served largely to show that the Russian president did not enjoy the partnership of equals he might hope for. “Russia, having largely lost the European markets, needs China more than the other way around,” concluded analyst Dimitar Bechev in [an article for *Foreign Policy*](https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/22/russia-china-meeting-xi-putin-gas-oil-asymmetry/).

Throughout his quarter century and more at the summit of Russian power, Putin has hated one thing above all: a lack of control. If political and military affairs are to become unpredictable, as they are in so many parts of international relations today, Putin wants at least to be the architect of the unpredictability. At the moment, there are many areas in which he has less than total control, the war in Ukraine, and [relations with China](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/things-putin-desperate-get-from-china-4429916?ico=in-line_link) being examples.

So even if the Kremlin does not have its way at the moment, the jamming of the jet carrying the Defence Secretary, as well as other areas of hostile activity, has shown us that Putin’s power is far from a spent force — and may yet become even more unpredictable.