The Real Data Behind Google’s Polymarket $1.2M Insider
Posted by mcpoyles
The Real Data Behind Google’s Polymarket $1.2M Insider
Posted by mcpoyles
10 Comments
This is the exact reason these markets should not exist…
How do I make a friend who is able to tell me about these sorts of trades….
Fair question, and it’s the key thing the data rules out. Two reasons it’s not luck: (1) On the 23 Year-in-Search markets he won 22 — and he won them by betting against the obvious favorites (NO on Trump/Pope/Censori) at high prices, then YES on an unknown at 3¢. That’s not picking winners, that’s knowing the answer. (2) The same wallet lost money on everything else it traded (−13.5% ROI, ~55% win rate). Luck doesn’t switch off the moment you leave one specific category. The DOJ independently charged him, which confirms the read.
How many Polymarket accounts do you think Donnie’s kid has?
AI written. The redundancy is such a tell.
Didn’t a US special forces ranger get caught doing this exact same thing on missions?
When will there be any regulations for Polymarket?
First off these markets should be banned.
Second off, you have to aim for 50% win rate and eek out the win in the high value bets.
The insider was an idiot.
Are Polymarket and Kalshi the same thing?
He’s been charged by the DOJ and CFTC (May 2026) — wire fraud, money laundering, and Commodity Exchange Act violations, up to 50 years max combined (charged, not convicted). Google put him on leave. I’m not a lawyer, but in these cases the profits are typically targeted for forfeiture/disgorgement. The notable part for this sub: the prosecution needed Google’s internal records to prove intent, but the trading footprint — every bet, timestamp, and payout — was sitting in public on-chain the whole time. The crime was visible before anyone went looking.