US-Iran Deal Opens Hormuz: The Real Test Begins At Sea – 3 Hurdles Keeping Ships Away
https://www.timesnownews.com/world/us/us-news/us-iran-deal-opens-hormuz-the-real-test-begins-at-sea-3-hurdles-keeping-ships-away-article-154665434?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=tn_orm
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The US and Iran signed a landmark deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ending a crisis that froze global energy trade. The agreement was finalized during a G7 dinner hosted by Emmanuel Macron at Versailles, marking a major step toward restoring one of the world’s busiest maritime routes.
The US and Iran signed a landmark deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ending a crisis that froze global energy trade. The agreement was finalized during a G7 dinner hosted by Emmanuel Macron at Versailles, marking a major step toward restoring one of the world’s busiest maritime routes.
This just shows how fragile the old order is. The Global South has been squeezed for decades over energy routes like Hormuz, and now they’re scrambling to patch it up. Multipolarity is pushing them to adapt or lose relevance.
From what I’ve seen, the mine clearance timeline is the real bottleneck. The Pentagon estimates up to six months to clear the mines Iran deployed. Even with a deal signed, insurers won’t write policies for Hormuz transit until the minesweeping is verified. VLCC day rates for Gulf-to-China routes hit $200K+ during the blockade (normally a fraction of that). Those risk premiums don’t drop overnight just because diplomats shook hands. Tanker operators will wait for the insurance market to reprice, and insurers will wait for the Navy to certify the strait is safe. That sequence takes months, not weeks.
Alright, but like how do they keep this from falling apart in a month? They need to sit down, map out shared interests, and actually talk long-term solutions. No trust means no peace, simple as that.
If I was Iran:
1. 30 days, performative demining, keep traffic down to 5-20 ships per day keeping energy choked off.
2. Demand the universe from Trump during negotiations.
3. When US reserves hit bottom (about 30 days according to Trump), accelerate negotiations.
4. Get the US to deploy peacekeepers to Israel or some shit, I don’t know where the limit is to what Trump will concede to them at that point.
Goldman Sachs now saying Hormuz will only see 70% of its pre-war flows. Alternative oil routes, maybe alternative energy.
One high placed security consultant said the Red Sea is only 30% of flows from a few years ago due to the Houthis (source: Bloomberg Insights interview a couple weeks back). Insurers and crews may not want the risk.
Yeah cool, they signed some paper, but sanctions didn’t work in the first place and never do. History’s full of cases where they just backfired or hurt civilians. This is like patching a leaky pipe you busted yourself.