Data: closing consensus NFL moneylines + final results, 2025 regular season (271 games). Implied probability from the standard moneyline→% conversion, vig removed. Built in Python / Matplotlib. Part of [SeeBet.ai](http://SeeBet.ai), a free NFL analytics project I’m building (not affiliated with the NFL). Descriptive history — not a prediction or betting recommendation.
Zero36 on
KC was a wallet leaking favorite bet last season
Onespokeovertheline on
Not a heavy enough gambler to be sure I’m making sense of this.
When a team was lightly favored in a tight matchup at (-100 to -150 favorites), then the result of betting on many of them tended to net out to break even?
And same for teams heavily favored in easy matchups (< -300 favorites)?
But betting on those who were favored by an amount in between that — clear favorites, but not wildly favored (-150 to -300) tended to lose money in aggregate?
KellerTheGamer on
Do you know if this is consistent across other seasons as well?
![[OC] How often NFL moneyline favorites actually won vs. what their closing price implied (2025 season, 271 games)](https://www.byteseu.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/rjdyumobamfh1-1536x967.png "[OC] How often NFL moneyline favorites actually won vs. what their closing price implied (2025 season, 271 games)")
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Data: closing consensus NFL moneylines + final results, 2025 regular season (271 games). Implied probability from the standard moneyline→% conversion, vig removed. Built in Python / Matplotlib. Part of [SeeBet.ai](http://SeeBet.ai), a free NFL analytics project I’m building (not affiliated with the NFL). Descriptive history — not a prediction or betting recommendation.
KC was a wallet leaking favorite bet last season
Not a heavy enough gambler to be sure I’m making sense of this.
When a team was lightly favored in a tight matchup at (-100 to -150 favorites), then the result of betting on many of them tended to net out to break even?
And same for teams heavily favored in easy matchups (< -300 favorites)?
But betting on those who were favored by an amount in between that — clear favorites, but not wildly favored (-150 to -300) tended to lose money in aggregate?
Do you know if this is consistent across other seasons as well?